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Alongside Q2 results TMX Group (X) announced an $800M investment in MEMX Group, the product of a merger between MEMX and BOX. With TMX rolling its existing BOX stake, the 59% pro-forma ownership slaps a $2.3B price tag on the entity - or 17x EBITDA…

… above where the company trades today, which is justified given the relative attractiveness of the derivatives business within its broader portfolio.

Once closed, 10% of US listed options volume will sit under the TMX umbrella - and with the overall market clocking mid-teens growth consistently…

… bulking up its exposure makes a lot of sense. The only potential pushback from investors could be on timing - with the company’s recent $683M RAFI and $409M CBOE deals pushing leverage above target…

… and this one likely to extend the return to normal timeline to some degree.

Payroll employment edged up 0.1% in May, the third straight monthly gain…

… on the back of continued strength in health care and public administration, which offset a ~1% drawdown in finance driven almost entirely by securities and commodities brokerage.

With the vacancy rate edging up to 2.8%, the momentum in payroll hasn’t translated to job openings yet - which will be necessary to keep unemployment trending in the right direction.

Timbercreek Financial (TF) reported a solid Q2, with staged loan balances improving by 10% sequentially…

… which is giving capital back to the company at a good time for origination, with management calling out $100M of net deployment in July alone and a healthy pipeline for the back half of the year.

Syndication has played an increasing role in supporting that activity, given it enables Timbercreek to fund new loans without burdening the balance sheet…

… while enhancing the portfolio’s equity yield, a key element to its distributable income consistency - with the payout sitting at 98% and the company declaring dividends through the remainder of 2026.

At an 11% yield, TF pays an 8% spread over two-year GoC bonds - and at ~0.8x book value we believe there’s share price upside as resolutions are reached.

Altius Minerals (ALS) announced the close of its US$168M ARR consolidation, which takes its effective interest in GBR to 50% and simplifies the corporate structure…

… at a time when renewable power production is accelerating…

… and earning meaningfully higher prices on that production, as electricity demand rises on the back of data center deployment, reshoring, and transportation.

The transaction gives Altius greater participation in GBR’s revenue ramp as new royalties come online, and with the credit facility getting upsized by $125M…

… more deployment could be coming, with management highlighting the attractiveness of renewable energy as an end market alongside its US$73M Coles Wind deal.

Ag Growth (AFN) sank 24% on its Q2 results, which were underscored by a deeper revenue contraction led by the commercial segment…

… that looks set to continue based on management commentary and a 22% Y/Y decline in the order book.

With elevated leverage and a strategic review initiated by the board, it’s tough to imagine a lasting bid until investors see signs of life in AFN’s end markets.

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