|
TSX
1D %
6M %
|
25,128.24
0.79%
8.03%
|
|
|
TSXV
1D %
6M %
|
615.84
2.23%
7.47%
|
|
|
S&P 500
1D %
6M %
|
5,861.57
1.59%
4.19%
|
|
|
NASDAQ
1D %
6M %
|
18,544.42
2.78%
4.45%
|
|
|
US 10Y
1D %
6M %
|
4.265
0.09%
11.71%
|
|
|
DJIA
1D %
6M %
|
43,239.50
0.45%
4.82%
|
|
|
CA 10Y
1D %
6M %
|
2.987
0.50%
2.29%
|
|
|
CAD/USD
1D %
6M %
|
0.693
0.66%
6.61%
|
|
Tariff deadline is up next week and getting priced
Markets sold off hard the last two hours into yesterday’s close, following Trump’s tariff deadline confirmation:
❝
Proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled… China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date.
Donald Trump - 2:12PM Truth Social Post
Seems no one knows what to believe anymore, with the amount of back and forth we’ve had thus far. Until we do get clarity though, could be a choppy period for markets.
Bank earnings: strong results, tempered outlook
With the Big-6 banks all done with Q1 reporting, we’re back with a post-mortem on the results.
wealth management strength should last
capital markets strength might not
credit outlook is getting more conservative
Starting with wealth - what a quarter it was, with huge Y/Y profit growth supported by higher assets under administration. AUA growth was driven by a strong market backdrop and client inflows, driving higher fee income.
Sidebar - I know a lot of you reading are in the industry, so give yourselves a pat on the back or buy yourself a beer, whatever makes you feel good.
Moving on to capital markets, where Y/Y profit growth jumped in a similar fashion. While the debt underwriting backdrop was strong, most of the growth here was attributable to elevated activity in global markets, specifically equities.
Volatile market conditions tend not to last though, making trading outperformance less durable than improvements in other segments.
On credit, all banks mentioned tariff-related uncertainty as a driver of increased loan loss provisioning activity in both performing and impaired loans. Builds here should be gradual though, and the banks have big capital buffers to insulate themselves.
While a strong quarter for the banks, questions on earnings durability and the macro backdrop combined with near-average valuations mean it’s still time to be selective, as we explore more in the full piece.
|
WTI Crude
1D %
6M %
|
70.11
2.18%
9.44%
|
|
|
Gold
1D %
6M %
|
2,873.94
1.55%
14.25%
|
|
|
Nat Gas
1D %
6M %
|
3.93
0.70%
100.99%
|
|
|
Silver
1D %
6M %
|
31.22
2.08%
4.53%
|
|
|
Lumber
1D %
6M %
|
629.17
1.35%
27.24%
|
|
|
Copper
1D %
6M %
|
4.55
0.20%
7.83%
|
|
|
Soybean
1D %
6M %
|
1,023.81
0.07%
6.68%
|
|
|
Aluminum
1D %
6M %
|
2,636.00
0.14%
3.70%
|
|
|
Corn
1D %
6M %
|
464.22
2.93%
20.11%
|
|
|
Wheat
1D %
6M %
|
547.47
3.27%
10.15%
|
|
|
Superior Plus (SPB)
1D %
6M %
|
6.61
11.47%
14.27%
|
|
|
SunOpta (SOY)
1D %
6M %
|
9.10
11.99%
8.72%
|
|
|
Veren (VRN)
1D %
6M %
|
7.57
9.39%
24.83%
|
|
|
Aya Gold (AYA)
1D %
6M %
|
11.77
7.32%
25.17%
|
|
|
Kinaxis (KXS)
1D %
6M %
|
160.59
5.19%
4.14%
|
|
|
Andlauer (AND)
1D %
6M %
|
42.25
6.34%
7.07%
|
|
| Insider |
Company |
Value |
| Benito Masi (President) |
Gildan (GIL) |
$1.1M |
| Rhodri Harries (EVP/CFO) |
Gildan (GIL) |
$29.7M |
| Dirk Maree (Director) |
B2Gold (BTO) |
$452K |
| Greg Barnes (Director) |
B2Gold (BTO) |
$204K |
| Scott Campbell (SVP) |
Pan American Silver (PAAS) |
$129K |
| Michael Dilger (Chair) |
Secure Waste (SES) |
$725K |
| Diane Giard (Director) |
TFI Int. (TFII) |
$133K |
| William England (Director) |
TFI Int. (TFII) |
$275K |
| Sime Armoyan (3-10%) |
Morguard (MRC) |
$284K |
| Allan Kimberly (Director) |
Minto (MI-U) |
$202K |
| Scott Balfour (CEO) |
Emera (EMA) |
$1.1M |
| Joseph Dick (Advisor) |
Eldorado (ELD) |
$216K |
| Scott Thomson (CEO) |
Scotiabank (BNS) |
$500K |
| Michael O'Keeffe (Chair) |
Champion Iron (CIA) |
$569K |
| Geoffrey Murray (EVP) |
Cenovus (CVE) |
$150K |
| Alain Bergeron (CIO) |
iA Financial (IAG) |
$361K |
| Philip Rivard (SVP) |
Waste Conn. (WCN) |
$947K |
| Sheila Colman (Director) |
Lundin (LUG) |
$413K |
| Ronald Hochstein (CEO) |
Lundin (LUG) |
$3.7M |
| Eliza de Lima (EVP) |
TC Energy (TRP) |
$7.4M |
| Duncan Fulton (CCO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$4.4M |
| Jonathan Domanko (CFO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$344K |
| Thiago Temer (CLO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$699K |
| Sami Siddiqui (President) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$1.5M |
| Axel Schwan (President) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$2M |
| Naira Saeed (CMO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$361K |
| Joshua Kobza (COO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$4.7M |
| Jeffrey Klein (CCAO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$377K |
| Jeffrey Housman (CIO) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$939K |
| Jill Granat (SVP) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$1.3M |
| Jacqueline Friesner (Director) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$562K |
| Tom Curtis (President) |
Restaurant Brands (QSR) |
$1.5M |
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company |
Actual |
Consensus |
| 🇨🇦 CIBC (CM) |
2.20 |
1.99 |
| 🇨🇦 Royal Bank (RY) |
3.62 |
3.24 |
| 🇨🇦 TD Bank (TD) |
2.02 |
1.98 |
| 🇨🇦 Kneat.com (KSI) |
-0.03 |
-0.03 |
| 🇨🇦 Stella-Jones (SJ) |
0.93 |
0.71 |
| 🇨🇦 Enerflex (EFX) |
0.39 |
0.27 |
| 🇨🇦 Energy Fuels (EFR) |
-39M |
3M |
| 🇨🇦 Quebecor (QBR-B) |
0.76 |
0.73 |
| 🇨🇦 Veren (VRN) |
0.40 |
0.29 |
| 🇨🇦 Canadian Utes (CU) |
0.74 |
0.73 |
| 🇨🇦 ATCO (ACO-X) |
1.30 |
1.24 |
| 🇨🇦 Amerigo (ARG) |
11M |
17M |
| 🇨🇦 Jamieson (JWEL) |
0.80 |
0.80 |
| 🇨🇦 ECN Capital (ECN) |
0.02 |
0.08 |
| 🇨🇦 MEG Energy (MEG) |
0.40 |
0.57 |
| 🇨🇦 Pembina (PPL) |
0.92 |
0.83 |
| 🇨🇦 RF Capital (RCG) |
0.01 |
0.07 |
| 🇨🇦 Chartwell (CSH-U) |
0.21 |
- |
| 🇨🇦 Pason (PSI) |
0.21 |
0.23 |
| 🇨🇦 Extendicare (EXE) |
0.23 |
0.18 |
| 🇨🇦 Doman Building (DBM) |
51M |
50M |
| 🇺🇸 Dell (DELL) |
2.68 |
2.52 |
| 🇺🇸 EOG Resources (EOG) |
2.74 |
2.57 |
| 🇺🇸 Autodesk (ADSK) |
2.29 |
2.14 |
| 🇺🇸 Vistra Corp. (VST) |
2.38 |
1.39 |
| 🇺🇸 Monster Bev. (MNST) |
0.38 |
0.40 |
| 🇺🇸 HP (HPQ) |
0.74 |
0.74 |
| 🇺🇸 Rocket Companies (RKT) |
0.04 |
0.03 |
Jamieson’s (JWEL) expansion into China is going well:
Top-line: FY revenue +9% to $734M (beat), led by 14% core brand growth and near 80% growth in China
Bottom-line: Adj. EBITDA edged up 2% to $141M (in-line), with margins squeezed by China investments
Key: strong 2025 guidance (9-14.5% Y/Y revenue growth, 11-15.5% Y/Y EBITDA growth)
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company |
Time |
Consensus |
| 🇨🇦 Docebo (DCBO) |
AM |
0.26 |
| 🇨🇦 Laurentian (LB) |
AM |
0.79 |
| 🇨🇦 Boralex (BLX) |
AM |
0.55 |
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release |
Actual |
Consensus |
| 🇨🇦 Current Account |
-$5.0B |
-$3.2B |
| 🇨🇦 Weekly Earnings Y/Y |
5.8% |
- |
| 🇺🇸 Durable Goods M/M |
3.1% |
2.0% |
| 🇺🇸 GDP Growth Q/Q |
2.3% |
2.3% |
| 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims |
242K |
221K |
| 🇺🇸 Home Sales M/M |
-4.6% |
-1.3% |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release |
Time |
Consensus |
| 🇨🇦 GDP M/M |
8:30AM |
0.3% |
| 🇨🇦 GDP Annualized |
8:30AM |
1.9% |
| 🇺🇸 Core PCE Index |
8:30AM |
0.3% |
| 🇺🇸 Income M/M |
8:30AM |
0.3% |
| 🇺🇸 Spending M/M |
8:30AM |
0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inv. M/M |
8:30AM |
0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 Retail Inv. Ex-Auto M/M |
8:30AM |
- |
| 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI |
9:45AM |
40.6 |
