So much for a 30-day break in the action.

Last night, Trump decided the superbowl was taking too much of his spotlight away and announced he’d be formalizing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today, including those from Canada and Mexico.

As the largest U.S. steel trading partner (~25% of total U.S. imports), these measures would have an outsized impact on Canada.

If you’ve been with us for a while, you’d remember we highlighted the primary metals sector as most vulnerable to tariffs. If not, you can read our piece from January 21^st below to get a better sense of how the entire value chain could be impacted.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/16

Since BCE gave us its Q4 results and uninspiring forward guidance last week, shares have slid more than 10%. With the stock off over 50% from 2022 highs, investors may be wondering if it’s time to back up the truck.

The company faces a litany of problems, anchored by its stalling legacy business that has weighed on both growth and return on capital.

It isn’t just cord-cutting and a shift away from legacy media that’s pressuring returns though, as a tighter regulatory regime and price competition from peers has caused problems for its wireless division as well.

With weaker returns, BCE has taken the approach of doing less with more to maintain growth, resulting in higher leverage and a downgrade to BBB from BBB+ by S&P Global last year.

The company announced two divestitures recently to repair the balance sheet - the $1B sale of Northwestel and the $4.7B sale of its 37.5% stake in MLSE.

So ~$5.7B in net proceeds, which would have been material to leverage reduction until BCE turned around and dropped $5B to scoop up Ziply Fiber to close out the year. Head scratcher.

At the same time the deal was announced, BCE paused dividend growth until leverage fell back in-line with targets. Too little, too late in our view.

Dividends already swallow all of BCE’s free cash flow, and while 34% enrollment in the company’s DRIP can put a bandaid on it (dividends paid out in shares rather than cash), it does nothing to solve the underlying problem.

The market agrees, pricing shares at a near 13% dividend yield, so the question becomes when does a cut come, not if.

We think there could be a “kitchen sink” moment in the cards for the company this year, where a shakeup of the board, leadership team, and dividend policy come all at once and reset the company to a sustainable base.

When we get some clarity on the big stuff and the path forward, BCE could be a good bottom-feeding opportunity based on where it trades today.

Until then, messy story - we’d be cautious.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/33

Converge Technology Solutions (CTS) announced a deal with private equity firm H.I.G. Capital to be acquired in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $1.3 billion, or $5.50 per share - a premium of ~55% over its closing price and 30-day VWAP. The deal, expected to close in Q2’25, will take CTS private and merge it with Mainline Information Systems, another H.I.G. Capital-owned entity.

There’s been a wave of Canadian tech take-outs recently, including:

Lightspeed (LSPD) has had takeout rumours swirling since 2024 on news that the company was being shopped and already had signed NDAs with potential buyers. It’s been a volatile period since, with a string of weak results likely adding friction to any potential sale process.

Canada's labour market kicked off 2025 with a strong print, as the economy added 76K jobs in January, ahead of expectations, with 57K private sector additions. The manufacturing sector led the employment gains, adding 33K jobs, with a third of those coming from Ontario. Other sectors contributing to the beat included professional, scientific and technical services (+22K), construction (+19K), and accommodation and food services (+15K).