Trump seems hell-bent on rebuilding the U.S. steel industry, promising to double the in-place steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% this Wednesday. If implemented, the tariffs should further inflate steel product prices, which have climbed ~15% this year.

The jump in border tax would disproportionately impact Canada, given we’re responsible for nearly a quarter of all U.S. imports.

This escalation represents 2x and 5x the previous Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, respectively, which should magnify the impact of cross-border flows the longer the dispute drags on.

We highlighted tariff-exposed companies in January, and with the basket recovering some lost ground from early April, we’d expect near-term weakness in shares.