Canada’s population shrank another 0.2% in Q4, shedding over 100K people and overtaking Q3’s contraction as the largest on record.

With the exception of Alberta (up 0.1%), which continues to benefit from interprovincial migration - the drawdown was broad-based…

… driven by another big reduction in non-permanent residents, which should continue - given the current total sits ~600K above Carney’s 5% target.

With immigration sitting well below the 400K annual target on a run-rate basis…

… NPR outflows should remain the driving force, resulting in continued pressure on population numbers in the coming quarters.

On a net basis security flows were up big in January, with $47B of foreign investment and $11B of Canadian investment abroad…

… nearly all of which ended up in the US, with investors adding equity exposure…

… and returning to US debt, after outflows in the previous three months.

Here at home, demand for resources drove a second straight equity inflow of $6B…

… which pales in comparison to the record $51B debt inflow, spread evenly across public and private issuers.

Oil will remain in focus heading into the weekend, with energy infrastructure damage building in the Middle East - pushing Canadian producers higher…

… on the back of elevated FCF expectations.

AutoCanada (ACQ) shed 15% on its Q4 results, which came in light on revenue driven by a near-20% drop in vehicle volumes…

… and missed big on margins, with used vehicle gross profit collapsing to sub-$450 per unit - as management cut prices to move higher aged inventory…

… which should continue through the first half of 2026. Combined with a number of recent executive changes, ACQ is likely to stay stuck at a discount…

… until investors gain confidence around improving fundamentals.

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