There’s been a lot of doom and gloom around mortgages lately, with delinquencies rising off of post-pandemic lows…

… concentrated mainly in Ontario and BC, which have seen the most exaggerated decline in home prices over the same period.

Within big bank loan books, that’s translated into some negative credit migration - but there’s no indication that risk isn’t contained…

… even if the trend continues, with an elevated mortgage renewal cycle set to last through most of 2027…

… that should have a mixed impact on consumer payments, skewing towards a step up - but not uniformly so. For the third of mortgages set to reprice higher…

… borrowers are likely to shop around, a second order effect that would benefit Dominion Lending Centres (DLCG), Canada’s leading broker network. The company clips a 7-8 bps fee on funded mortgage volume ($85B in 2025)…

… and another 4 bps from its in-house mortgage processing software, which has been rapidly adopted across its 9,000+ broker footprint.

Together, these two levers create a credit-agnostic way to play the cycle - with incremental volume flowing through to margins…

… which the market is starting to price, with the stock up nearly 3x in three years and trading at a premium to its long-term average.

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