We have movement on the trade front:

Between the absence of 51^st state commentary and governor references, it’s clear Trump is in dealmaking mode as we highlighted in our initial piece on auto tariffs.

We think that’s an important anchor… both parties are incentivized to figure this out. When the media would have you believe the sky is falling, remember that this is a negotiation, and deals tend to be struck somewhere in the middle of the extremes.

For now though, expect that April 2^nd brings new U.S. tariffs and a Canadian response.

Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51

We got GDP data to close out last week, which jumped 0.4% M/M in January (up 2.2% Y/Y), ahead of December’s 0.3% gain and consensus estimates at 0.3%.

Goods producing industries notched their highest monthly gain in more than 3 years at 1.1%, giving us another data point in support of a pre-tariff pull forward.

The preliminary forecast for February is flat M/M and we could see more pressure through March and April, as the first full months of no tax holiday and tariff implementation bite into consumer demand.

Poilievre continues to take aim at keeping capital in Canada, with a proposed capital gains tax deferral on personal and corporate profits reinvested in Canada from July 1^st through 2026.

The proposal could have a much bigger impact on domestic flows than the ~$5B annually from Pierre’s TFSA top-up plan and the timing is interesting, with Canadian companies opting for asset sales to offset a challenging financing backdrop.

It could also free up housing supply held by the 55+ demographic, who would be able to roll the capital gains from real estate into a lower risk investment to support them in retirement.

Perhaps most importantly, it could encourage repatriation of Canadian capital invested abroad, which has accelerated over the last decade.

We’re back with another earnings recap, this time diving into results out of the Canadian tech universe. Check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/74

Vitalhub (VHI) was up big on the back of a strong Q4, beating street estimates on both the top and bottom line. VHI has more than tripled since the end of 2023 following Shen Capital (a Canadian growth equity firm) taking a large position and board seat.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) went the other way on earnings, missing big on revenue and EBITDA and reversing its YTD gains, while the sector continues to rally.

Flagging the Mark Leonard sale here for $75M, as it’s the first big insider sale at Constellation (CSU) this year and one of only a handful of sales by the founder.

TODAY’S EARNINGS

Watch for oil this week, as Trump threatens Russia with oil tariffs and Iran with bombing.