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WHAT'S ON TAP
Trump to delay sector-based tariffs
Carney announces tariff relief package
New home prices aren’t budging
Canadian election coming April 28th: Liberals lead polls & betting markets
Consumer staples earnings recap: is “Buy Canada” impacting results?
Carney scraps capital gains tax hike and pushes for reduced friction to interprovincial trade by July 1st
A lot of single name volatility after Q4 results as funds position for the year ahead - we’re in a stock picker’s market
TRADE WAR MONITOR
Late Sunday we got another update on the U.S. side, as the scope for the April 2nd deadline appears to have been narrowed down to just reciprocal tariffs. Markets will likely take to this positively today, as broad industry tariffs on sectors like automobiles appear to be avoidable for now.
In Canada, Mark Carney announced a $6.5B trade war relief package Friday night, with support coming from three areas:
The BDC - $500M: specifically for small and medium-sized businesses impacted by U.S. tariffs - the loans come with preferred interest rates and flexible payment terms.
Export Development Canada (EDC) - $5B: the Trade Impact Program runs for two years for companies coping with lower U.S. sales and/or exploring new global markets.
Farm Credit Canada (FCC) - $1B: Similar to the BDC program but specifically for the agriculture sector.
Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Lower rates not helping new home prices
We closed out last week with new home prices, which remain range bound over the last two years, inching up 0.1% Y/Y in February.
There’s a few opposing forces at play here. Lower rates should drive prices higher, but with weaker housing starts and tighter immigration policy, we’re not budging.
Liberals favoured in upcoming election
It’s now official - gear up for an election on April 28th.
As we highlighted previously, Liberal support has risen faster than Trudeau can say tax holiday, as Mark Carney is out marketing a less aggressive liberal agenda.
The 36-day period between now and election day is the legal minimum, indicating Carney wants to strike while the iron is hot. It’s easy to see why.
With front row seats to Poilievre’s campaign, Carney was able to take the wind out of his sails by addressing points that resonated with voters, including the removal of the consumer carbon tax and a proposed middle class tax cut announced yesterday.
Now I’m far from being a political savant, but I have a working theory…
The sentiment around Pierre’s campaign strategy has turned negative lately, which makes me wonder… is that all they have?
Put another way - if you were highly confident you had the winning hand in poker, wouldn’t you try to draw out as many chips as possible by making your opponents think you had a bad hand?
With Carney going all in, we’re about to find out if the conservatives set a trap.
Food staples recap: time to buy Canada?
We’re back with another recap, this time on Canada’s food staples names (grocers & food manufacturers). Results looked solid across the group, but the outlook isn’t all sunshine and rainbows, as we explore in the full piece. Check it out!
If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/68
FUNNY BUSINESS
The Trump administration’s social media intern
ON OUR RADAR
Carney aims to have 'free trade by Canada Day' between provinces and territories… we previously wrote about the prospect of reducing interprovincial trade - check it out here.
COMMODITIES
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Flagging copper here, which has had a hot start and now sits at all-time high levels. Good for Canadian copper mining stories like Teck (TECK-B) and Foran (FOM).
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Thinkific (THNC) has been in the toilet bowl since its weak Q4 earnings print in early March, down over 20%. A shift in focus to enterprise customers might be spooking some investors who were banking on the creator economy boom.
G Mining (GMIN) sold off on Friday, which just looks to be some profit taking - still up huge YTD!
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Smallwood | Wheaton (WPM) | $1.6M |
| James Kessler | RB Global (RBA) | $1.5M |
| James Jeter | RB Global (RBA) | $743K |
| Sami Siddiqui | Restaurant Brands (WSR) | $1.7M |
| Thomas Curtis | Restaurant Brands (WSR) | $1.6M |
EARNINGS
FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Dentalcorp (DNTL) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| 🇨🇦 Premium Brands (PBH) | 1.05 | 0.95 |
Dentalcorp (DNTL) delivered a strong quarter:
Top-line: Revenue hit $398M in Q4, slightly ahead of expectations and up ~10% Y/Y, driven by the acquisition of 30 new dental practices in 2024 (now up to 561 locations). Same Practice Revenue Growth was more modest at just under 3%.
Bottom-line: Adjusted EBITDA grew ~12% to $74M with margins expanding 40 bps to 19%.
The company also declared its inaugural quarterly dividend of $0.025 per share (payable April 22nd), continued its share buyback program for up to 2% of outstanding shares, and provided an optimistic 2025 guide with projected revenue growth of 10-11% and plans for $25M+ in acquisition-related EBITDA contribution.
TODAY’S EARNINGS
No stragglers today… almost all wrapped up!
ECONOMIC DATA
FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 New Home Prices M/M | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 🇨🇦 New Home Prices Y/Y | 0.1% | - |
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales Ex-Auto | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales M/M | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales Y/Y | 4.2% | - |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Mftg. Sales M/M | 7:30AM | - |
| 🇺🇸 National Activity Index | 7:30AM | - |
| 🇺🇸 Composite PMI Flash | 8:45AM | - |
| 🇺🇸 Mftg. PMI Flash | 8:45AM | 51.9 |
| 🇺🇸 Services PMI Flash | 8:45AM | 51.2 |
