The employment picture deteriorated more than expected in April, with unemployment jumping to 6.9% vs. estimates of 6.8% - the highest level since November of 2024.

Under the hood, the impact of U.S. tariffs is starting to bleed through - with sizeable job loss across manufacturing and trade. The public sector gains were largely driven by temporary election-related work - we expect a reversal here in May.

The length of the average jobless stint continued its march higher to >22 weeks, driven by the more vulnerable younger demographic (15-24), which sits at 14.1% unemployment today.

Bottom line: the labour market remains ugly and there’s no near-term fix. With 2.4M Canadian workers tied to U.S. exports and a widening unemployment gap with our neighbours south of the border, Carney isn’t entering these negotiations from a position of strength.