TSX
1D %
YTD %
25,357.74
0.41%
1.85%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
683.40
0.64%
10.70%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
5,659.91
0.07%
3.56%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
17,928.92
0.00%
7.01%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.409
3 bps
16 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
41,249.38
0.29%
2.70%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.181
2 bps
4 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.718
0.08%
3.15%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • Labour market data is getting worse

  • Algonquin’s 30% jump is a lesson in market psychology

  • Geopolitics dominate the weekend newswire

  • Air Canada flies on new buyback, U.S. travel outlook weakens

  • Docebo falls on lower guidance & two executive departures

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Labour market deterioration continues

The employment picture deteriorated more than expected in April, with unemployment jumping to 6.9% - the highest level since November.

Under the hood, the impact of U.S. tariffs is starting to bleed through - with sizeable job loss across manufacturing and trade. The public sector gains were largely driven by temporary election-related work - we expect a reversal here come May.

The length of the average jobless stint continued its march higher to over 22 weeks, driven by the younger demographic (15-24) which sits at 14.1% unemployment.

Bottom line: the labour market remains ugly and there’s no near-term fix. With 2.4M Canadian workers tied to U.S. exports and a widening unemployment gap with our neighbours south of the border, Carney isn’t entering these negotiations from a position of strength.

AQN up 30%: a lesson in market psychology

Algonquin Power (AQN) shares closed nearly 10% higher on Friday after posting an earnings beat - that’s ~30% higher since we pitched it to subscribers in February.

While many have lazily chalked up the jump in price to Q1 results, the reality is that it ran on the back of this statement from the conference call:

We expect this outlook, which will be primarily based on the current portfolio, will include projected adjusted net EPS ranges for ‘25, 2026, and 2027, with more detailed thoughts on the company and its potential.

Roderick West (CEO) - Q1’25 earnings call

If you don’t get why, improve your understanding of how markets think by reading our follow-up below. Check it out!

FUNNY BUSINESS

The finish line is in sight for this Q1 earnings season which always comes way, way too soon after Q4 wraps up.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Gunther Birkner CCL Industries (CCL-B) $1.2M
Grant Fagerheim Whitecap (WCP) $121K
Rhodri Harries Gildan (GIL) $5.2M
Mike Rose Tourmaline (TOU) $626K
Donald Jenkins AltaGas (ALA) $388K
Marc Giroux Metro (MRU) $1.4M
Kerry Dyte Kinross (K) $419K
William Dunford Kinross (K) $1.1M
Hugues Simon Cascades (CAS) $103K
James Halliday Element Fleet (EFN) $1.1M
George Burns Eldorado (ELD) $181K
Deborah Weinstein OpenText (OTEX) $545K
Richard Dufresne George Weston (WN) $17.4M
Adam Beattie ATCO (ACO-X) $5.2M

Flagging the ATCO sale here, as it’s a name we’ve been talking about as a beneficiary of affordable (modular) housing. Adam is the head of the structures & logistics group so we don’t love to see him shed $5M in stock here, though we’d note a similar transaction pattern last year.

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Air Canada (AC)
1D %
YTD %
17.54
14.64%
21.20%
Docebo (DCBO)
1D %
YTD %
36.94
17.10%
42.69%
NFI Group (NFI)
1D %
YTD %
14.55
12.79%
3.93%
Fiera (FSZ)
1D %
YTD %
5.67
13.44%
37.14%
Algonquin (AQN)
1D %
YTD %
8.35
9.72%
30.88%
Pembina (PPL)
1D %
YTD %
51.65
5.85%
2.75%

Air Canada (AC) was flying on its Q1 results, where it posted a smaller loss than expected and announced a new $500M buyback program. The company plans to chew through it by the end of June, in addition to the ~$800M they’ve bought back since November. We also got an incrementally negative update on Canada → U.S. travel.

That said, this remains contained as we are experiencing booking declines on the transborder market in the low teens on average over the next 6 months.

Michael Rousseau (CEO) - AC Q1’25 earnings call

Docebo (DCBO) fell nearly 20% on its Q1 print, driven by a negative guidance revision to 9-10% top-line growth (below expectations) and the departure of two members of the executive team (CRO and CPO).

EARNINGS

FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Air Canada (AC) -0.45 -0.54
🇨🇦 Docebo (DCBO) 0.27 0.22
🇨🇦 Algonquin (AQN) 0.14 0.10
🇨🇦 Enbridge (ENB) 1.03 0.95
🇨🇦 Cineplex (CGX) -0.56 -0.34
🇨🇦 Fierra (FSZ) 0.20 0.22
🇨🇦 Total Energy (TOT) 50.5M 52.0M
TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 K92 Mining (KNT) AM 0.31
🇨🇦 dentalcorp (DNTL) AM 0.14
🇨🇦 Orla Mining (OLA) AM 0.10
🇨🇦 Geodrill (GEO) AM 0.05
🇨🇦 Hudbay (HBM) AM 0.11
🇨🇦 Ensign (ESI) AM -0.04
🇨🇦 Constellation (CSU) PM 20.6
🇨🇦 DRI Healthcare (DHT-U) PM 0.51
🇨🇦 Exchange Income (EIF) PM 0.27
🇨🇦 Chemtrade (CHE-U) PM 0.21
🇨🇦 Finning (FTT) PM 0.86

ECONOMIC DATA

FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate 6.9% 6.8%
🇨🇦 Employment Change 7.4K 2.5K
🇨🇦 FT Change 31.5K -
🇨🇦 PT Change -24.2K -
🇨🇦 Participation Rate 65.3% -
🇨🇦 Hourly Wages Y/Y 3.5% -

Nothing material on the economic slate for today… enjoy the breather.

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
60.98
1.78%
15.06%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,328.82
0.38%
26.84%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.79
5.50%
5.26%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
32.75
0.99%
13.41%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
544.22
1.71%
1.15%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
4.60
1.27%
15.65%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
1,043.60
0.66%
4.41%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,421.10
0.51%
5.30%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
440.98
0.45%
3.73%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
504.50
1.66%
8.52%

Disclaimer: Bullpen Finance Inc. is not a registered investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. See our terms of service for more information.