We got labour market data for May on Friday, with unemployment inching higher to 7%, in-line with analyst expectations…

… and employment gains of ~9K edging out expectations for a 15K loss, led by strength in full-time employment.

At the sector level, gains in wholesale trade and losses in public administration largely offset performance in prior months, while tariff-induced manufacturing weakness is starting to show in the numbers.

The manufacturing slowdown is clear in the regional data, with cities more reliant on the automotive sector posting steep Y/Y increases in unemployment.

Those regional trends should continue in the near-term and if we don’t reach a trade agreement soon, we’d expect flow-through impacts to unemployment duration.