Futures are ripping on the back of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has oil trading ~15% off highs…

… given the Strait of Hormuz should be open for business, driving a potential rebound in traffic through the channel.

With confusion around terms, what happens next is anyone’s guess - but trades that worked during the conflict could unwind if we get the off-ramp markets are pricing in.

The Ivey PMI came in worse than expected at 49.7, indicating purchasing activity slowed during the month…

… likely driven by disruptions linked to Iran, with the price index expanding at the fastest rate in a year…

… and supplier deliveries slowing significantly, forcing companies to draw down inventory balances to meet demand.

If there was a bright spot in the release it was employment, which was up for the first time in three months…

… and should drive manufacturing employment in the next jobs print.

Restaurant Brands (QSR) has started making noise around its Burger King turnaround, which was initiated after years of underperformance that’s gotten worse through 2025…

… resulting in the segment’s contribution shrinking. The Home of the Whopper is still material at 15% of revenue…

… so the up to $700M being invested through 2028 could move the needle, making the outcome of that capital allocation important to QSR’s valuation.

KITS Eyecare (KITS) sold off over 10% on its Q1 pre-release before ending the day down 3%, roughly equal to the top line miss versus guidance. Despite the shortfall, revenue grew 23% Y/Y…

… supported by over 60% growth in its more profitable glasses segment, which should continue to push EBITDA margins higher as its contribution increases.

With enough time, that could change how the market prices the story - shifting focus from growth to operating leverage.

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