Last Morning Meeting we laid out an argument for a less popular approach to dealing with looming tariffs - give Trump what he wants (within reason), and rebuild from the inside so this doesn’t happen again.

Then we came across this quote from TMX Group’s earnings call:

Makes you wanna run through a brick wall for your country, doesn’t it? We should all take great pride in being Canadian. In our neck of the woods, that means in the businesses built and operating here.

There’s been a push lately to make running companies in Canada easier through reducing friction to interprovincial trade, a move economists think could add up to $250B to GDP, while reducing our U.S. dependence.

While certainly not the only driver, the cumulative impact of many small differences in the same regulations from province to province has played a part in trade between provinces falling so much over the years.

Provincial trade balances highlight a different problem, where a lack of critical infrastructure makes U.S. exports the only economically viable option in some cases.

With strong opposition remaining, it’s hard to see a path towards oil from western Canada ending up anywhere other than the U.S…

…which in combination with a less desirable product (heavy, sour crude), results in a discount versus global oil benchmarks.

Energy infrastructure will be a major topic in the upcoming elections, but for now, let’s focus on what could change near-term. It seems the low hanging fruit - making regulations more uniform across provinces - could be accomplished relatively quick.

From there, focus shifts to removing some of the provincial power on the flow of goods like dairy, meat, and alcohol.

So who wins from less friction to interprovincial trade?

Well, we all do. But on the company level, we split the pot in 3 ways:

End market expansion opportunities: Companies in this category are growth-constrained in outside provinces. With more open doors, they’d be fishing in a bigger pond and top-line growth could improve.

Supply chain efficiency opportunities: These companies are already large and have footprints across Canada. With less friction to trade, they can rip cost associated with compliance and complexity out of their supply chains and expand margins.

Second-order beneficiaries: If the above two scenarios play out, the likely result is more demand for goods, which could provide tailwinds to companies involved in the movement of those goods.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/31

Celestica executives are getting RICH. Like really, really rich - and they’re cashing in. In 2025 alone, executives have sold $133.5 MILLION in stock.

Now it isn’t all that unusual a pattern for CLS executives to sell shares. We went back through the tape to make sure - rights exercise followed by a sale is pretty standard for them.

Only difference is this time, they’re doing it after the stock ripped >13x in the past year and a half from under $15 to nearly $200.

I think I know pain, but I would not want to be the guy at Celestica who elected to take his compensation in all cash…

Now, we’ll save a deep dive into the company for another time, but there are very real long-term implications of a management team that is “over-earning”.

We see it in sports all the time - a big contract gets signed, financial security is guaranteed forever, and the player underperforms.

It’s human nature.

Will they still be as focused on the business as they were before the big payday? The answer to that will only reveal itself in time. If you missed this run though, we’d be cautious on piling in here.

Bell (BCE) got rocked another 6% after reporting earnings, now down >50% from highs in 2022. Top-line results were in-line and EPS beat by 11%, up 8% y/y. Investors were looking for a dividend cut with Bell’s payout at ~117% of FCF, but to no avail. This comes after the company sold the MLSE stake with the message of reducing leverage, only to go execute a significant deal in the U.S. weeks later. The yield may look attractive on this one - but we think it could be far from over. Keep an eye out for a potential shakeup in leadership in the quarters to come.

Great West Lifeco (GWO) reported solid earnings, beating estimates by 9% (up 14% y/y), supported by an ROE of 17.5% and AUA of $3.2T. The U.S. is performing strongly for GWO, but is still only 11% of the business. It also raised its dividend by 10% and announced a $500M buyback program. Good all around, and the stock jumped 10% on the day.