We got CPI for January yesterday which shaped up mostly as expected, up 1.9% Y/Y as economists predicted.

The tax holiday was a major contributor to the subdued print, with core CPI (trim) coming in at 2.7%, the largest positive gap between the two figures in many months.

So what happens when the tax holiday rolls off?

With the GST holiday ending over the weekend, we’re two prints away from seeing if these parts of the basket return to inflation tailwinds.

If you want to keep up with the inflation backdrop, check out our interactive research:

And as always, a chart dump breaking out the inflation data by its 3 largest components (shelter, food, transportation), enjoy!

Gold stocks have outperformed the commodity over the past year, but still lag the metal over any longer-term period, which poses the question: will gold stocks continue to play catch up or will the longer term trend prevail?

The pandemic created the perfect environment for a gold rally, with both uncertainty and an aggressive easing program (rates and stimulus) pushing prices higher.

Since 2022 though, the typical relationship between the US 10Y and gold has broken down, with prices continuing their march higher in the face of an equally aggressive series of rate hikes from central banks.

The geopolitical backdrop could help explain this divergence, with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rising tensions with China causing uncertainty (and more emerging market gold demand from central banks).

If gold prices can stay high, Canadian-listed producers are well-positioned as they currently enjoy THICK margins between the price they receive per ounce and the costs of producing it.

Take a look at the spreads this basket of Canadian names has right now:

Despite the run they’ve had recently (same basket), valuation creep hasn’t happened at all, as the street cranks up profit forecasts to reflect stronger pricing.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/38

Another source of near-term uncertainty removed with the appointment of Brian Chin to interim CFO. I was fortunate enough to speak with him quarterly in my old chair and for anyone wondering, he is EXCELLENT.

Easily the best IR professional I’ve met and is more than capable of crushing it in the interim seat. With that and Starboard increasing their position by >3M shares (8.5% owner), this one is getting interesting. You can check out our deep dive on Algonquin below:

Flagging the purchase of Rogers Sugar (RSI) here as it’s the first time we’ve seen someone come in at this size. Could be nothing - the stock hasn’t moved in 5 years - but it’s a big buy, and that’s worth paying attention to at the very least.

iA Financial (IAG) reported a strong beat, with Q4 core diluted EPS up 30% Y/Y to $3.04, driven by a 39% surge in premiums/deposits ($5.7B) and improved margins. The company acquired Global Warranty to expand its dealer services and maintained a strong 139% solvency ratio.

Cargojet (CJT) reported strong results Monday, but given the holiday we’ve included it in this one. Q4 2024 revenue surged 32% Y/Y to $293M, driven by a 30% increase in domestic network, ACMI, and charter revenues - with charter revenues alone growing 136% Y/Y. Net earnings reached $71M, reversing a loss from the previous year. The company repurchased 1.1M shares for $129M during the year, while maintaining a leverage ratio of 2.3x.