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WHAT'S ON TAP
Inflation accelerates on tax holiday
Docebo’s $54M acquisition
Cenovus weighs $3B of asset sales
EQB runs on CEO’s interview
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Inflation accelerates on tax holiday impact
Headline inflation of 2.4% came in hotter than expectations, rising from November’s 2.2% print…
… on the back of continued acceleration in food and alcohol prices.
While the store-bought portion of that inflation has some stickiness (meat, coffee, etc.), the restaurant portion should be short-lived…
… given Trudeau’s tax holiday was the primary driver. That should be supportive of Y/Y price growth in impacted categories through February…
… before the base-year effect rolls off and numbers normalize.
Docebo’s $54M deal might not be the last
Docebo (DCBO) announced the $54M acquisition of 365Talents, the largest in the company’s public history. With lost contracts and SaaS sentiment weighing on the stock, the ~6x NTM sales price tag sits well above current trading…
… so multiple arbitrage isn’t the source of accretion (DCBO paid cash). Management is counting on the target’s rapid growth to continue, aided by the access it can provide to the under-penetrated North American market.
That should support growth in average contract value and could be a sign of things to come, given Docebo has no debt and slowing new customer acquisition.
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging news that Cenovus (CVE) is weighing ~$3B of asset sales to accelerate leverage reduction after the $8.5B MEG Energy deal. While it’s speculation, the company hasn’t been shy about its intentions post-close…
… nobody should be surprised if we do find a way to reduce debt more quickly and get back to 100% shareholder returns a lot sooner than just organically deleveraging.
… so don’t be shocked if something materializes in the coming quarters.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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EQB Inc. (EQB) ran 5% yesterday on an interview where CEO Chadwick Westlake reiterated his conviction in the company’s transformation, as it charts its course towards a 15% ROE target…
… by pulling back in some areas (equipment finance), doubling down in others (insured mortgages), and adding entirely new lines of business through its $800M acquisition of PC Financial.
There’s likely more pain ahead near-term, with the bank expecting elevated provisioning activity to start 2026…
… but if EQB’s ROE trajectory (y-axis) lines up with street expectations, his claim that the bank is heavily discounted on a book value basis (x-axis) could prove true.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Jill Arias | First Majestic (FR) | $769K |
| Raymond Polman | First Majestic (FR) | $317K |
| Jean-Paul Lachance | Peyto (PEY) | $238K |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Netflix (NFLX) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| 🇺🇸 3M (MMM) | 1.83 | 1.80 |
| 🇺🇸 D.R. Horton (DHI) | 2.03 | 1.92 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 J&J (JNJ) | AM | 2.46 |
ECONOMIC DATA
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 PPI M/M | 8:30AM | 0.3% |
| 🇨🇦 Raw Materials M/M | 8:30AM | -0.5% |
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