Here’s what we have on tap for you in this Morning Meeting:

We’re in the silent treatment part of the argument now. Carney met with French and UK leadership but not Trump, after stating Monday that he’d not engage with the U.S. while they continue to make 51^st state jokes.

There’s rumours swirling that Canada and the EU could look to collectively push the U.S. to dial back tariffs. It would definitely give the group more leverage in talks, but is it the right move given Trump’s approach thus far?

One thing’s for sure, we’re going to need to make progress with the U.S. sooner rather than later.

Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51

As we flagged in lower inflation prints from past months, the tax holiday roll-off effect is here and it’s bigger than anticipated, with CPI notching its highest reading in 8 months at 2.6%, well above analyst expectations of 2.2%.

As I’m sure your wallet feels, most categories remained sticky, food and clothing deflation reversed course sharply, and recreation inflation intensified (did the February snowfall really drive that much demand for lift tickets?).

With the next print representing the first full month without a tax holiday (this was only half), let’s see if this acceleration continues. If it does, the BoC’s job could get a whole lot more difficult.

For the full chart dump, go here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/64

Housing starts came in weaker than expectations of 250K, declining >4% M/M in February to 229K units, reversing January’s ~3% gain.

Drilling down provincially, Ontario and British Columbia continue to drag down country-wide numbers, with starts in key cities Toronto and Vancouver down 68% and 48% Y/Y, respectively. Oof.

Leaving the housing start numbers on such a cheery note parlays well into our first earnings recap: real estate.

All things considered, numbers looked pretty good - but in our view, the structural setup is more favourable in some pockets than others.

Let’s start with apartment REITs, who have been taking it on the chin ever since tighter immigration policy was announced in October.

Despite a slight softening in occupancy since the policy shift, increased rents have kept SPNOI in growth mode, especially in names with more regional exposure (Boardwalk in western Canada, Killam in atlantic Canada).

One name to watch for vulnerability to the macro picture here is Minto (MI-U), given its focus on premium assets (less ability to absorb lower market rents).

The real estate asset class we like in a bad macro backdrop is retail, which continued to raise rents and drive occupancy growth with results.

Slow and steady is the name of the game with these names, especially in the controlled retail REITs (the ones with large single tenant exposure who typically own a big stake).

While upside is capped given how they’re setup, these companies (Crombie, Choice Properties, etc.) trade like bonds, making them perfect duration trade candidates.

Despite solid results out of some of the industrial REITs, we’re not too hot on this asset class in an uncertain macro backdrop, with the two outperformers here carrying some unique risks:

And last, but certainly not lea-

actually, office is definitely still our least favourite - we just don’t see any catalyst here in the near-term beyond valuation.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/63

So we didn’t get the results we were hoping for in the housing data…

…maybe the Fed rate meeting today will surprise us?

Flagging the NVDA link here, as we think it’s important.

We recently started doing more work on the data center trade, noting valuations are starting to look attractive again. We’ll follow up with some company-specific thoughts soon!

Almonty ran 42% on the back of its newly announced strategic partnership with American Defense International. This partnership positions them as a key supplier of tungsten and molybdenum for U.S. interests - fitting, as the company looks to redomicile soon.

Sagicor dropped >5% after earnings that showed declining Net CSM in both the U.S. and Canadian segments, poor production in Sagicor Life USA, and persistent volatility across business units. However, with shares up 22% in a bad market, some of yesterday’s selling is probably just profit taking.

Couche-Tard (ATD) delivered mixed earnings results:

Its pursuit of 7-Eleven's owner continues, with indications that ATD might enhance its $47B offer if the Japanese company shows interest.