Friday’s GDP print came in hot, jumping 0.5% Q/Q and growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%, well above estimates for 1.7% growth.

The gain was driven by a surge in U.S. exports…

… and a build in non-farm inventories, as companies brace for impact ahead of a prolonged tariff back and forth.

Overall results were pared-down by a similar jump in pre-tariff imports…

… and a drastic slowdown in real estate resale activity - a topic we may do some more work on in the near-future.

While preliminary forecasts for April are for a 0.1% M/M gain, the outlook beyond that is less positive, with final demand showing no growth for the first time since 2023.

The flat reading was driven by a 0.8% sequential decline in fixed capital formation…

… and moderating growth in household consumption, which could signal a consumer under pressure when viewed in conjunction with a lower household savings rate and relative disposable income growth.