TSX
1D %
YTD %
31,263.93
0.7%
25.6%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
935.57
1.0%
51.6%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,800.26
0.2%
15.9%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
23,111.46
0.2%
19.9%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.16
2 bps
41 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
48,114.26
0.6%
13.5%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.41
2 bps
19 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.727
0.1%
4.5%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • CPI holds, food inflation jumps

  • Housing starts up, absorption down

  • Launching coverage on VersaBank

  • WSP acquires TRC for $4.5B

HOT OFF THE PRESS

CPI holds, food jumps

Headline inflation of 2.2% came in lighter than expected, holding steady from the October print…

… on a mixed bag of Y/Y changes. On one hand, lower rent costs are weighing on inflation in shelter - while store-bought food re-accelerated to 4.7%…

… the highest reading in nearly two years, driven mainly by fresh fruit costs - a change of tune from the beef-led rise in prices at the counter from months past.

Food wasn’t the only category accelerating, with cellular services rising 12.7% - building on the momentum from October’s 7.7% increase.

Housing starts beat, absorption drops big

Housing starts edged by estimates in November, rising to 254K on a rebound in multi-unit activity.

On a Y/Y basis the print was pretty strong, with the exception of continued weakness in Ontario and BC…

… but that’s not the real story here. While new unit construction continues to inch lower, multi-unit absorption has fallen off a cliff - dropping nearly 20 percentage points over the past two prints.

The amount of pre-construction investments that are deep out of the money is a likely factor, which should drive a continued build in inventories from here.

RESEARCH: VERSABANK

Our coverage of VersaBank (VBNK) is now live. It’s a simple & clean thesis, so I’ll give it to you in three charts. From there, you can grab the full report on our site.

Proven digital banking model: Over decades of operating in Canada, the bank’s core β€œRPP” model has been refined into a stable margin, low credit risk, high efficiency business (growing >300% in the past five years).

Expanding in the large US market: Through 2025 VersaBank has been expanding south of the border, adding US$300M of assets - with an additional US$1B targeted for 2026. Success here should result in greater operating leverage and higher ROE.

Trading near book value: This US expansion should translate to higher growth in book value per share and a higher multiple on that growth. Combined, these two levers for investment returns make the upside case for VBNK compelling.

Bottom line: this is a story you should be following. Our initiation report will get you up the curve and our ongoing research coverage will keep you there - use the button below to get it in your inbox:

If the button doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/versabank

ON OUR RADAR

Flagging WSP Global’s splashy $4.5B deal for TRC, a price tag that translates to 12.5Γ— 2026 EBITDA after synergies. The transaction math works from day one…

… and should improve to high-single-digit accretion after TRC is fully integrated. More than anything, this is a land grab - building on WSP’s $2.4B Power Engineers deal to grow the U.S. power business…

… and accelerate its push into the private sector, given over 80% of TRC’s business is done with non-government entities.

With management targeting sub-2x leverage a year after closing, WSP could soon build on its $5B of committed capital in 2025…

… especially if the equity markets stay supportive, with $850M of this one funded through share issuance.

GAINERS & LOSERS

NFI Group (NFI)
1D %
YTD %
14.46
12.3%
3.3%
Spartan (SDE)
1D %
YTD %
6.86
6.9%
98.8%
Gildan (GIL)
1D %
YTD %
87.15
5.5%
28.8%
Imperial (IMO)
1D %
YTD %
117.32
5.3%
32.4%
Gatekeeper (GSI)
1D %
YTD %
2.13
4.4%
273.7%
Tamarack (TVE)
1D %
YTD %
7.33
4.9%
53.0%

NFI Group (NFI) gained 12% following its battery recall agreement with XALT, which should result in a 75-80% recovery on the $229M provision it took last quarter for a full battery replacement on 700 vehicles.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Grant Fagerheim Whitecap (WCP) $112K
Guillaume Cloutier TerraVest (TVK) $124K
Rahim Suleman Neo Materials (NEO) $199K
Shaina Morihira Freehold (FRU) $275K
Ross Jennings Millennial (MLP) $345K

EARNINGS

TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Transat A.T. (TRZ) PM 0.21
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Micron (MU) PM 3.94

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Non Farm Payrolls 64K 50K
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.4%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Retail Sales M/M 0.0% 0.1%
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Foreign Security Buys 9:30AM 21.8B

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About Bullpen: Bullpen Finance Inc. publishes content on Canadian markets and provides paid research coverage of select Canadian issuers. Bullpen is paid in cash by covered issuers, does not accept stock or options, does not hold positions in covered securities, and does not conduct investment banking business. Bullpen and LodeRock Advisors Inc. are affiliated; LodeRock provides investor relations services to issuers, some of whom are covered by Bullpen Research. When a post discusses a covered issuer, a specific disclosure appears at the top of the post. This post is published for general information purposes. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any individual reader’s circumstances. Bullpen is not a registered investment adviser or dealer. For full disclosures, including analyst certification, jurisdictional statements, and conflict of interest policies, please see our Legal & Disclosures section on our website.