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WHAT'S ON TAP
G7 summit sets shot clock on deal
Housing starts beat, inventory builds
Keyera spends $5B on Canadian infra
Primaris buys Lime Ridge for $400M
Dynamite jumps 20% on earnings
HOT OFF THE PRESS
G7 meeting sets shot clock on trade deal
The G7 summit in Alberta looks to have been fruitful, with a 30-day window set for a Canada/U.S. trade deal that should revitalize cross-border activity if we get it.
How that deal will be structured remains unclear, as Trump pointed to the contrast between his and Carney’s approach to solving this problem:
It’s not so much holding up. I think we have different concepts. I have a tariff concept. Mark has a different concept, which is something that some people like.
Regardless of how the chips fall, I think it’s safe to say that Canada won’t enjoy the same level of surplus that it has in the past.
Housing starts beat, inventory builds
Housing starts surprised to the upside for the second straight month, with nearly 280K in May handily beating estimates for 248K thanks to continued multi-unit gains.
May’s 9% Y/Y gain was carried by strength across the prairie provinces and in Quebec, while Ontario (Toronto down 22%) and BC (Vancouver down 10%) continue to face challenges.
Whether the strength in starts can translate into increased housing supply remains to be seen, as new unit construction continued to moderate in May…
… and unabsorbed inventory continued to build, as did the amount of time it took to sell that inventory.
Keyera’s $5B deal to bring home Canadian infra
After the close, Keyera made a splashy $5B bid for the Canadian assets of Plains All American Pipeline in a deal that looks good on paper and is transformative for the company. We cover the deal rationale and details in the full piece below.
If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/163
Primaris buys Lime Ridge Mall for $400M
Contrarian stories are cool - it takes guts to step into a market everyone wants out of. Two current examples come to mind: Strathcona betting big on oil, and Primaris buying up malls faster than pension funds can sell them.
Its latest ~$400M purchase of Hamilton’s Lime Ridge Mall is interesting, adding more of the same HBC exposure that’s weighed on the stock this year.
For the investor willing to look beyond the next few quarters, the narrative around Primaris could shift as it starts executing its strategy, as I dig into below.
If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/162
FUNNY BUSINESS
Contrarian stories are cool, sure, but contrarian investing…
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Amar | Finning (FTT) | $292K |
| Judith Menard | National Bank (NA) | $1.3M |
| John Paulson | Bausch Health (BHC) | $10.6M |
| Dean Halewich | Canadian Natural (CNQ) | $464K |
| Chris Reynolds | Nutrien (NTR) | $1.7M |
| Andrew Keleman | Nutrien (NTR) | $423K |
| Kenneth Seitz | Nutrien (NTR) | $5.9M |
| Marina Bernardini | Sigma Lithium (SGML) | $1.5M |
| Yousriya Loza | G Mining (GMIN) | $23.4M |
| Stephen Smith | EQB Inc. (EQB) | $2.4M |
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Groupe Dynamite (GRGD) popped nearly 20% on earnings, with a beat on the quarter and higher full-year guidance for same store sales growth of 7.5-9.0% (was 5.0-6.5%). This name was down nearly 50% YTD by liberation day, but it’s been up and to the right ever since.
Ballard Power (BLDP) fell nearly 12% on a CEO change, with long-time leader Randy MacEwen announcing his departure after the close on Monday.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Dynamite (GRGD) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| 🇨🇦 High Tide (HITI) | 8.1M | 5.9M |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Aurora (ACB) | AM | 15.3M |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Foreign Security Buys | -$9.4B | -$2.9B |
| 🇺🇸 Retail Sales M/M | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| 🇺🇸 Export Prices M/M | -0.9% | -0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 Import Prices M/M | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 Industrial Prod. M/M | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 Mftg. Prod. M/M | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 Biz Inventories M/M | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Index | 32 | 36 |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 BoC Macklem Speech | 11:15AM | - |
| 🇺🇸 Building Permits Prel. | 8:30AM | 1.43M |
| 🇺🇸 Housing Starts | 8:30AM | 1.36M |
| 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims | 8:30AM | 245K |
| 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims | 8:30AM | 1,940K |
| 🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision | 2:00PM | 4.5% |
COMMODITIES
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