We got some trade give and take on Friday, with China dropping canola seed tariffs to 15% in exchange for a mere 6% import tax on the first 49K EVs sent into Canada. That number represents under 3% of vehicles sold annually…

… but nearly 20% of electric vehicles sold in 2024, before trade tensions and incentive reductions pushed volumes lower.

Given they’re responsible for nearly all canola production, the western provinces have the most to gain from the deal…

… and auto-heavy provinces like Ontario have the most to lose, especially if trade with the U.S. is disrupted as a result of the agreement.

While that seems unlikely for now, with Trump seeming relatively indifferent to the news - the USMCA review in July could tell a different story.