The much anticipated budget is here and it’s bringing bigger deficits, at $78B this year before scaling down to $57B in 2030.

Carney’s camp has emphasized that the majority of this fiscal hole is linked to its 5-year, $280B capital investment program - led by the major projects, defense spend, and housing programs we’ve all heard of.

Also in that figure are some depreciation incentives, allowing a full write-off of certain equipment, machinery, and CapEx in year one. That should drive fixed capital formation and productivity higher…

… as should a reduction in the size of our public sector, with the government looking to shed 40K federal jobs - part of its $60B cost savings target.

At 500 pages, it’s long - but we’ll follow the key items (like the emissions cap) and keep you in the loop.

Another Canadian miner is in play, with Coeur (CDE) proposing a $7B all-stock deal for New Gold (NGD) - positioning the combined company as a North American leader in precious metals production…

… and one with better economics, given NGD’s low cost production profile and leverage to gold prices.

Coeur also gets some copper exposure in the deal, which could be a regulatory hurdle if the $75B Teck/Anglo merger is any indication…

… but management appears committed, indicating it will pursue a TSX listing and ramp up investment in the acquired assets. There’s a lot of cash waiting on the other side of an Investment Canada approval…

… which could drive a re-rate, given the better trading liquidity and index inclusion opportunities that come with being an American company.

Rumours of another Canadian energy takeout after Paramount (POU) sold a 9.5% stake in NuVista (NVA) were proven true, with Ovintiv (OVV) revealed as the buyer - announcing a $3.8B bid that would expand its Montney presence…

… by 100 mBOE/d. Post-close, OVV will look to get rid of its exposure to the Anadarko basin (also ~100 mBOE/d) - which should keep its production profile flat...

… and bring its net debt position below $4B, opening the door for a ramp in buybacks. Since highlighting M&A could follow weak oil prices we’ve seen MEG, STEP, TCW, KEC, and NVA transact…

… let’s see who’s next.

Pet Valu (PET) lost 16% after reporting a Q3 miss, driven by a slowdown in same-store sales growth…

… which prompted the company to tighten its full-year guide towards the bottom half of its previous targets ($1.18B of revenue, ~$260M of EBITDA).

The 2026 outlook was the nail in the coffin, with management’s skepticism around an industry recovery likely to drive downward estimates revisions…

… and keep investors sidelined until they have line of sight to a rebound. With shares giving back gains following Roark Capital’s exit in June, this one could chop sideways for a while.

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