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WHAT'S ON TAP
All eyes on today’s BoC rate decision
AQN jumps 16% on the back of investor update
CAE’s new CEO is a literal weapon
Elon takes a swing at the Big Beautiful Bill
More insider selling at MDA
Wildfires put pressure on oil production
HOT OFF THE PRESS
All eyes on today’s BoC rate decision
After a strong inflation print and a beat on GDP, markets are pricing in a second pause at 2.75% this morning, following seven straight cuts.
Regardless of today’s decision, the outlook from bank economists is for more easing this year, as the labour market and consumer remain under pressure.
Algonquin runs on positive investor update
In May we said the easy money had been made in Algonquin (AQN) stock, as valuations caught up to the peer group after management’s commitment to give guidance out to 2027 at its June 3rd investor day.
From the previous bite
The stock sold off since, with some analyst downgrades (currently 12 holds, 1 buy) and no movement in forward estimates. Yesterday’s investor update got the stock moving again, up 16% on the back of a long-term EPS guide well ahead of expectations.
The company plans to get there by leaning out the cost structure and investing $2.5B into the growth of its utility asset base - all without issuing equity, a funding source the company became too reliant on previously.
If AQN can deliver $0.44 of EPS in 2027 (mid-point of guidance), the stock should still have upside as it closes the valuation gap to peers (~20% discount on 2027). Combine that with a ~5% dividend and the potential for a few analyst upgrades, and we’re not as quick to take profits this time around.
For a refresh on the story, check out our original pitch from February below.
If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/27
CAE adds bench strength with new CEO
It’s easy to see why shares of CAE Inc. (CAE) were up more than 4% on Monday after the announcement that Matthew Bromberg would take the reins in two weeks time… this guy is a literal weapon.
He looks to be a great strategic fit for the company, given his decades of U.S. defense experience - a critical geography and business segment for CAE.
With former Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu taking the Executive Chairman seat and strong defense tailwinds in both Canada (see bite) and the U.S. (see bite), CAE’s current premium feels more than fair.
FUNNY BUSINESS
It didn’t take long after Elon’s departure from government before he took a swing at the Big Beautiful Bill, specifically its potential impact on the U.S. deficit.
This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong.
Trump didn’t respond to Musk directly, opting to go after Republican Senator Rand Paul instead.
Rand votes NO on everything, but never has any practical or constructive ideas. His ideas are actually crazy (losers!). The people of Kentucky can’t stand him. This is a BIG GROWTH BILL.
Let’s see if Trump changes course and looks for a fight with the richest man in the world…
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| John Risley | MDA Space (MDA) | $2.8M |
| Keith Creel | Canadian Pacific (CP) | $13.7M |
| Tobyn Shannan | Shopify (SHOP) | $259K |
| Paul Clark | TD Bank (TD) | $860K |
| Kelvin Tran | TD Bank (TD) | $913K |
| Russell Mahan | TC Energy (TRP) | $802K |
| Plantro | Dye & Durham (DND) | $3.6M |
| John Ciampaglia | Sprott Inc. (SII) | $803K |
| Sime Armoyan | Morguard (MRT) | $2.5M |
| Brigette Chang | CI Financial (CIX) | $1.3M |
| Edward Kelterborn | CI Financial (CIX) | $503K |
| Luis Durant | Fortuna (FVI) | $657K |
| Eric Chapman | Fortuna (FVI) | $661K |
| Christina Kramer | CIBC (CM) | $4.0M |
| Mitchell DeBelser | TerraVest (TVK) | $1.7M |
Flagging the continued MDA Space (MDA) selling, with management unloading $5.5M since the end of May.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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New Found Gold fell 5% after closing the first tranche ($42M) of its $56M bought deal financing. The second tranche of is expected to close around June 12th.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 CrowdStrike (CRWD) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 VersaBank (VBNK) | AM | 0.28 |
| 🇨🇦 Descartes (DSG) | PM | 0.60 |
| 🇨🇦 Transcontinental (TCL-A) | PM | 0.54 |
| 🇨🇦 Canaccord (CF) | PM | 0.17 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings | 7.4M | 7.1M |
| 🇺🇸 Factory Orders M/M | -3.7% | -3.0% |
| 🇺🇸 Factory Orders Ex-Trans. | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 Econ. Optimism Index | 49.2 | 49.1 |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Labour Productivity Q/Q | 8:30AM | 0.4% |
| 🇨🇦 S&P Composite PMI | 9:30AM | - |
| 🇨🇦 S&P Services PMI | 9:30AM | - |
| 🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision | 9:45AM | 2.75% |
| 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change | 8:15AM | 115K |
| 🇺🇸 S&P Composite PMI | 9:45AM | 52.1 |
| 🇺🇸 S&P Services PMI | 9:45AM | 52.3 |
| 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI | 10:00AM | 52.0 |
| 🇺🇸 ISM Services New Orders | 10:00AM | 52.3 |
COMMODITIES
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Oil continued its rally this week, due in part to the wildfires impacting Alberta and Saskatchewan that have led to the suspension of ~350K bpd of output. More importantly, we hope everyone in and around the impacted areas are okay.
Company | Output Paused |
|---|---|
Cenovus (CVE) | 238K bpd |
MEG Energy (MEG) | 70K bpd |
Canadian Natural (CNRL) | 36.5K bpd |
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