• Cineplex activist sees 200% upside

• The Taylor Swift trade is on

• Banks rally on strong start to Q3

• MDA’s latest deal could get upsized

Does Cineplex really have 200% upside?

Windward Management is turning up the volume on its Cineplex (CGX) activist campaign, with the ~7% shareholder calling for 200% upside potential if management works to fix its discount…

… by buying back stock hand over fist, before box office numbers fully recover. They’re looking for the company to repurchase over half of shares outstanding…

… supported by a $261M EBITDaL forecast and a potential digital media sale, which Windward predicts could fetch $100M - with the possibility for another $120M if CGX sells its remaining 33% stake in Scene+.

Sounds too good to be true and probably is, despite being directionally correct. For one, Windward’s 2026 EBITDAaL forecast sits >20% above the street - that’s a lot of margin expansion baked in.

Management’s thinking on divestitures is also unclear, despite a partial sell-down of its stake in Scene+ and rumours of a media sale in the past. With CGX highlighting the complementary nature of each segment…

… and making no mention of asset monetization on recent calls, Windward’s H2’25 prediction is uncertain. What is certain is the contrast in operating style, with CGX management sticking to a more conservative, leverage-focused strategy…

… before ramping up a return of capital via buybacks and dividends.

At $42M in cash as of Q2 and a recent renewal of the NCIB, we’re likely to see some activity in what’s been a dormant buyback program soon - that could put a floor under shares… not a bad setup.

If you have a daughter or a Globe & Mail subscription, you know Taylor Swift just got engaged - and markets are already pricing in the impact… sending shares of Signet up ~3% (U.S. diamond jewelry retailer).

A quick google search tells me there are ~240M Swifties globally (holy sh!t) - if Canada’s share is now inspired to get hitched… who could benefit? There’s a few legs in this trade (only half-joking):

🥂 Celebration: bachelor/bachelorette parties, family events, and of course the big day… all positive for alcohol consumption - good for Andrew Peller (ADW) and Corby Spirits (CSW).

🏡 Family Preparation: as newlyweds move into starter homes and prepare for kids, demand for furniture and child-specific products (ie. strollers) could pick up - good for Leon’s (LNF) and Dorel (DII).

🧸 Kids: as kids come into the picture, so will the need for distraction entertainment and mess management - good for Spin Master (TOY), WildBrain (WILD), and KP Tissue (KPT).

The basket is flat YTD, lagging the TSX by ~14% - let’s see how it does from here… so insane it might work?

Flagging the NexGen (NXE) sale, which brings the insider total to over $16M in August alone and follows some small buying from Brad (Director) in April… when shares were ~70% cheaper.

• WildBrain kills TV broadcast unit

• Emera announces new CFO

• Canada & Germany to partner on critical minerals

• CPKC: further rail M&A not needed

• BoC will keep 2% inflation target

• Canada Goose attracts $1.4B bid

The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) jumped 7% on a strong Q3, beating revenue by 2% and earnings by ~9% - thanks in large part to lower provisions.

BNS has been in the penalty box recently, with leadership uncertainty and more credit-sensitive international exposure weighing on the stock. With shares trading at a large discount to peers…

… there’s likely room higher if Scotia can continue to execute.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) also beat earnings forecasts by ~9% on more favourable provisioning activity…

… but a good chunk of yesterday’s 5% run was driven by its upsized 30M share buyback program (4% of shares), as BMO looks to deploy excess capital.

MDA Space (MDA) gained 3% on EchoStar’s $23B wireless spectrum sale to AT&T. The cash from the deal improves EchoStar’s financial position, making it more likely for the company to upsize its $1.8B satellite order with MDA.

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