Long-term unemployment is the highest since 1998

Eli Rodney
August 8, 2025
Labour

The unemployment rate held steady at 6.9% in July, beating estimates for an increase to 7%

despite a big miss on the change in employment, with 51K full-time jobs lost…

… across a number of industries led by information, construction, management services, and health care.

The reason this employment miss didn’t ding the unemployment rate was a drop in workforce participation to 65.2%. Down only slightly Y/Y, the decrease isn’t ringing any alarm bells

… but it’s likely a symptom of the highest structural unemployment we’ve seen since 1998 (excluding the pandemic), with nearly a quarter of unemployed people having been so for more than 27 weeks.

Get smarter on Canadian markets

Get our insight-packed coverage of Canadian markets delivered to your inbox 3x per week in 5 minutes or less.

Disclaimer: Bullpen Finance Inc. is not a registered investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. See our terms of service for more information.

Get smarter on Canadian markets

Get The Morning Meeting, our insight-packed Canadian markets newsletter delivered to your inbox 3x per week.

Read by 1,000+ professionals from:

Bank of Montreal
Toronto Dominion Bank
Bank of Nova Scotia
Royal Bank of Canada
National Bank of Canada
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce