Unemployment surprises analysts, market weighs tariff likelihood

Eli Rodney
July 14, 2025
TSX
1D %
YTD %
27,023.25
0.2%
8.5%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
784.42
1.4%
27.1%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,259.75
0.3%
6.7%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
20,585.53
0.2%
6.8%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.41
6 bps
16 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
44,371.51
0.6%
4.7%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.50
10 bps
28 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.731
0.2%
5.0%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • Part-time driven employment beat

  • Building permits beat on lumpiness

  • Ackman makes his pro tennis debut

  • Strathcona paints “no deal” picture

  • Hammond drops 7% on tariff worries

  • MTY Food Group sheds 12% on Q2

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Employment beat driven by part-time gains

The unemployment rate hit 6.9% in June, falling for the first time since January and coming in well below expectations for a M/M rise to 7.1%…

… thanks to an 83K gain in employment, driven mainly by part-time hires (+70K).

A large share of those hires showed up in retail trade, which carried the group at the industry level - accounting for nearly half of June’s gain.

While the print shaped up better than expected, the labour market outlook remains challenging - with more than one in five still stuck in long-term unemployment…

… and student unemployment (15-24) flirting with levels from previous recessionary periods.

Building permits beat on lumpy project

Building permits for May hit $13.1B, gaining 12% versus April and topping analyst expectations for a small M/M decline.

The strength looks less sustainable under the hood, with the outperformance driven almost entirely by institutional activity…

… linked to a $1.3B gain in Ontario on construction intentions for a new hospital.

Residential permitting helped to a much smaller degree, with a ~$700M gain in Vancouver multi-unit activity offsetting continued weakness in single family intentions.

FUNNY BUSINESS

Bill Ackman found himself in some hot water last week - not for anything investment related, but because he made his professional tennis debut.

Him and his partner got crushed despite the opposing pair taking it easy on him, drawing criticism from some prominent figures in the sport.

There was exactly one person on the court trying as hard as he could… it was a disaster.

Andy Roddick

He’s catching a lot of flack, but be honest… if you get a shot to play a single pro game in your favourite sport you’re not taking it?

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

InsiderCompanyValue
Jennifer TrevittAvino (ASM)$192K
Yousriya LozaEndeavour (EDV)$10.0M
Yousriya LozaG Mining (GMIN)$6.4M
Simon GagneEmpire (EMP-A)$250K
Michael MedlineEmpire (EMP-A)$2.6M
Troy AndersenCdn Natural (CNQ)$2.6M
Rui FengSilvercorp (SVM)$641K
Riaan EsterhuizenVox Royalty (VOXR)$501K
David SchummerEquinox (EQX)$100K
David SchummerEquinox (EQX)$100K
GMT CapitalSaturn (SOIL)$19.5M
Salim ManjiExtendicare (EXE)$204K

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Strathcona (SCR)
1D %
YTD %
32.84
7.9%
4.2%
MTY Food (MTY)
1D %
YTD %
39.83
12.8%
13.0%
Velan (VLN)
1D %
YTD %
14.84
6.2%
37.4%
Hammond (HPS-A)
1D %
YTD %
118.99
6.6%
7.1%
Canada Goose (GOOS)
1D %
YTD %
19.14
4.1%
32.6%
Propel (PRL)
1D %
YTD %
36.29
4.9%
1.4%

Strathcona (SCR) closed last week up 8%, as Adam Waterous indicated that if the company’s ~$6B bid for MEG energy didn’t get over the finish line it would likely pay out excess cash through a special dividend of up to $10/sh.

Hammond Power (HPS-A) was off 7% Friday, given it would be exposed to Trump’s 35% blanket tariffs on Canadian imports - with the U.S. making up nearly 70% of revenue and most of its manufacturing footprint outside of America.

EARNINGS

FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
CompanyActualConsensus
🇨🇦 MTY Food (MTY)1.171.22

MTY Food Group (MTY) posted a Q2 miss on Friday, sending the stock down 12% on large volume. U.S. same-store growth fell nearly 4% Y/Y on weather impacts, a weak macro picture, and a changing consumer (less alcohol)…

… which management said is continuing into Q3. The M&A backdrop doesn’t appear to be much better, resulting in a near-term focus on debt reduction and buybacks.

A lot of what we see is fixer uppers that we’re not necessarily looking for at the moment. And we’re also seeing a lot of good networks that are commanding very, very high multiples and that we’re not necessarily willing to pay the price for…

Eric Lefebvre (CEO) - MTY Q2’25 call
TODAY’S EARNINGS
CompanyTimeConsensus
🇨🇦 Prariesky (PSK)AM0.26

ECONOMIC DATA

FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
ReleaseActualConsensus
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate6.9%7.1%
🇨🇦 Employment Change83.1K0.0K
🇨🇦 FT Change13.5K-
🇨🇦 PT Change69.5K-
🇨🇦 Participation Rate65.4%-
🇨🇦 Hourly Wages Y/Y3.2%-
🇨🇦 Building Permits M/M12.0%-0.8%
🇺🇸 Monthly Budget27B-11B
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
ReleaseTimeConsensus
🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales M/M8:30AM-0.4%

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
68.67
3.2%
4.3%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,356.35
1.0%
27.9%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.36
0.7%
6.7%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
38.50
4.0%
33.3%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
601.03
1.6%
9.2%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
5.53
1.0%
39.0%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
1,002.82
1.0%
0.3%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,603.70
0.2%
1.9%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
397.72
2.3%
13.2%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
544.98
1.7%
1.2%

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