Unemployment surprises analysts, market weighs tariff likelihood
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WHAT'S ON TAP
Part-time driven employment beat
Building permits beat on lumpiness
Ackman makes his pro tennis debut
Strathcona paints “no deal” picture
Hammond drops 7% on tariff worries
MTY Food Group sheds 12% on Q2
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Employment beat driven by part-time gains
The unemployment rate hit 6.9% in June, falling for the first time since January and coming in well below expectations for a M/M rise to 7.1%…

… thanks to an 83K gain in employment, driven mainly by part-time hires (+70K).

A large share of those hires showed up in retail trade, which carried the group at the industry level - accounting for nearly half of June’s gain.

While the print shaped up better than expected, the labour market outlook remains challenging - with more than one in five still stuck in long-term unemployment…

… and student unemployment (15-24) flirting with levels from previous recessionary periods.

Building permits beat on lumpy project
Building permits for May hit $13.1B, gaining 12% versus April and topping analyst expectations for a small M/M decline.

The strength looks less sustainable under the hood, with the outperformance driven almost entirely by institutional activity…

… linked to a $1.3B gain in Ontario on construction intentions for a new hospital.

Residential permitting helped to a much smaller degree, with a ~$700M gain in Vancouver multi-unit activity offsetting continued weakness in single family intentions.

FUNNY BUSINESS
Bill Ackman found himself in some hot water last week - not for anything investment related, but because he made his professional tennis debut.

Him and his partner got crushed despite the opposing pair taking it easy on him, drawing criticism from some prominent figures in the sport.
There was exactly one person on the court trying as hard as he could… it was a disaster.
He’s catching a lot of flack, but be honest… if you get a shot to play a single pro game in your favourite sport you’re not taking it?

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
Insider | Company | Value |
---|---|---|
Jennifer Trevitt | Avino (ASM) | $192K |
Yousriya Loza | Endeavour (EDV) | $10.0M |
Yousriya Loza | G Mining (GMIN) | $6.4M |
Simon Gagne | Empire (EMP-A) | $250K |
Michael Medline | Empire (EMP-A) | $2.6M |
Troy Andersen | Cdn Natural (CNQ) | $2.6M |
Rui Feng | Silvercorp (SVM) | $641K |
Riaan Esterhuizen | Vox Royalty (VOXR) | $501K |
David Schummer | Equinox (EQX) | $100K |
David Schummer | Equinox (EQX) | $100K |
GMT Capital | Saturn (SOIL) | $19.5M |
Salim Manji | Extendicare (EXE) | $204K |
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Strathcona (SCR) closed last week up 8%, as Adam Waterous indicated that if the company’s ~$6B bid for MEG energy didn’t get over the finish line it would likely pay out excess cash through a special dividend of up to $10/sh.
Hammond Power (HPS-A) was off 7% Friday, given it would be exposed to Trump’s 35% blanket tariffs on Canadian imports - with the U.S. making up nearly 70% of revenue and most of its manufacturing footprint outside of America.

EARNINGS
FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
Company | Actual | Consensus |
---|---|---|
🇨🇦 MTY Food (MTY) | 1.17 | 1.22 |
MTY Food Group (MTY) posted a Q2 miss on Friday, sending the stock down 12% on large volume. U.S. same-store growth fell nearly 4% Y/Y on weather impacts, a weak macro picture, and a changing consumer (less alcohol)…

… which management said is continuing into Q3. The M&A backdrop doesn’t appear to be much better, resulting in a near-term focus on debt reduction and buybacks.
A lot of what we see is fixer uppers that we’re not necessarily looking for at the moment. And we’re also seeing a lot of good networks that are commanding very, very high multiples and that we’re not necessarily willing to pay the price for…
TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company | Time | Consensus |
---|---|---|
🇨🇦 Prariesky (PSK) | AM | 0.26 |
ECONOMIC DATA
FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release | Actual | Consensus |
---|---|---|
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate | 6.9% | 7.1% |
🇨🇦 Employment Change | 83.1K | 0.0K |
🇨🇦 FT Change | 13.5K | - |
🇨🇦 PT Change | 69.5K | - |
🇨🇦 Participation Rate | 65.4% | - |
🇨🇦 Hourly Wages Y/Y | 3.2% | - |
🇨🇦 Building Permits M/M | 12.0% | -0.8% |
🇺🇸 Monthly Budget | 27B | -11B |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release | Time | Consensus |
---|---|---|
🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales M/M | 8:30AM | -0.4% |
COMMODITIES
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