April’s trade data came in worse than expected, with a record ~$7B trade deficit coming in well below analyst estimates of $1.5B.

Overall activity fell significantly, with imports down 7% M/M excluding the impact of a surge in gold demand…

… and total exports down 11%, on broad-based declines at the category level.

The slowdown was driven by a 16% drop in U.S. export activity, as the impact of tariffs caused a sharp reversal from strong prints in prior months.

Exports to the rest of the world cushioned the blow a bit, rising nearly 3% as Canada looks to diversify its trade relationships…

… which is precisely the reason that deficits should persist as the dispute drags on given that historically, our international trade relationships run a deficit and we’ve been reliant on the U.S. to offset that.

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