Retail sales data was mixed in March, with the headline number coming in ahead of estimates, but missing big when excluding the impact of auto-related activity. We dive into the numbers at the headline, category, and regional level.

Friday’s retail sales print edged out expectations, rising 0.8% M/M (versus estimates of 0.7%) and up 5.5% compared to last March.

The beat was largely driven by a pull-forward in vehicle sales ahead of U.S. tariffs, with the category gaining nearly 5% on February’s number. Excluding auto sales, retail sales fell 0.7% M/M, missing expectations for a flat reading.

The main category drivers influenced regional results, with auto-heavy provinces like Quebec outperforming fuel-reliant provinces like Manitoba.

The front-running effect looks set to continue in the near-term, with preliminary numbers suggesting a 0.5% monthly bump to retail sales for April.