Friday’s GDP print was in-line with estimates, gaining 0.2% M/M and capping off Q3 on a positive note.

The 0.6% Q/Q gain was almost entirely driven by an improving trade balance, with imports posting their biggest decline since Q4/22 (down 2.2%)…

… but fixed capital formation also contributed, with a 3% rise in government investment that was concentrated on weapons systems (up 82%).

Together, that offset a sequential decline in household consumption…

… and inventory investment, which should have a lid on it in the near-term - given inventory balances continue to build.

With that, final domestic demand was flat on the quarter - indicating weak underlying economic momentum…

… as businesses continue to push capital investment to the right. That looks set to weigh on October’s GDP print - with early estimates calling for a 0.3% M/M drop led by oil & gas, education, and manufacturing.

The budgetary deficit was $5B in September, expanding Y/Y on higher program expenses (EI-led) and climbing to $16B on a YTD basis.

It was the first full month since Carney’s rollback of some U.S. tariffs, resulting in a much smaller counterbalance than before…

… that should continue to shrink, as the new liberal budget sets the stage for much larger deficits in the back half of the fiscal year.

Flagging an early warning report filed by Intercap that states it’ll clear out Warburg’s $68M position, taking Jason Chapnik’s (chair) stake to ~57%. Like we saw with Pet Valu, a block that big can weigh on shares if the market expects selling…

… so it’ll be interesting to see how it trades from here. It’s not the only headwind DCBO’s faced recently, with lost contracts and general pressure on SaaS names - but if its new FedRAMP authorization can bring ARR growth higher…

… another private player could start circling if shares don’t respond.

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