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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Iran disruption drives $2B trade surplus
March’s trade surplus of $1.8B beat expectations, growing over last month…
… on the back of a 2% decline in imports…
… and 9% rise in exports, led by precious metals and energy products.
The value of crude oil leaving the country jumped 19%, driven by the price impact of the supply disruption in Iran…
… which flowed through to US trade, with exports south of the border rising 8% to $49B - the highest level in a year.
Non-US exports benefitted similarly, rising 10% to a record $24B on higher shipments of gold to the UK and energy products to Germany and the Netherlands.
ON OUR RADAR
The government is back with more steel support measures, including a $1B loan program and $500M of funding for companies pivoting away from the US market. The announcement follows a series of import restrictions…
… and with steel exports sitting at roughly a third of pre-tariff levels, it likely won’t be the last in the absence of a trade deal.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Shopify (SHOP) shed 15% on its Q1 results, which topped estimates on the back of a second straight quarter of over $100B in GMV (up 35% Y/Y)…
… but came with an outlook for top line deceleration in Q2, with management calling for growth in the high-20s on revenue and mid-20s on gross profit…
… underpinned by less FX help and a normalization of developer share revenue tailwinds. Overall, rock-solid results - but when you trade at ~10x EV/sales…
… there’s volatility around earnings.
Wajax (WJX) sold off nearly 15% on its Q1 print, which missed expectations on lumpiness in equipment sales - with construction, forestry, and mining down Y/Y…
… and driving near-term caution from management. Despite some end market softness, the company is operating efficiently - with inventory turns stabilizing at 2.5x…
… and leverage sitting at the bottom end of Wajax’s 1.5-2.0x target range, positioning it well for a more constructive demand environment and M&A - which could drive multiple expansion…
… but will take time, with the new CEO getting settled into the role over the next couple quarters.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Cameco (CCO) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| 🇨🇦 Thomson (TRI) | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| 🇨🇦 Colliers (CIGI) | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| 🇨🇦 Triple Flag (TFPM) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| 🇨🇦 Hammond (HPS-A) | 2.08 | 1.78 |
| 🇨🇦 Intact (IFC) | 4.12 | 4.08 |
| 🇨🇦 Suncor (SU) | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| 🇨🇦 Russel Metals (RUS) | 1.30 | 0.76 |
| 🇨🇦 iA Financial (IAG) | 3.25 | 3.31 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Stella-Jones (SJ) | AM | 1.18 |
| 🇨🇦 Forits (FTS) | AM | 1.00 |
| 🇨🇦 Sprott (SII) | AM | 1.28 |
| 🇨🇦 Loblaw (L) | AM | 0.52 |
| 🇨🇦 Cenovus (CVE) | AM | 0.76 |
| 🇨🇦 Cdn Utilities (CU) | AM | 0.87 |
| 🇨🇦 TransAlta (TA) | AM | -0.01 |
| 🇨🇦 ATCO (ACO-X) | AM | 1.46 |
| 🇨🇦 Linamar (LNR) | PM | 2.81 |
| 🇨🇦 Element (EFN) | PM | 0.46 |
| 🇨🇦 WSP Global (WSP) | PM | 2.06 |
| 🇨🇦 Savaria (SIS) | PM | 0.31 |
| 🇨🇦 Kinaxis (KXS) | PM | 1.14 |
| 🇨🇦 Great-West (GWO) | PM | 1.31 |
| 🇨🇦 Nutrien (NTR) | PM | 0.73 |
| 🇨🇦 Sun Life (SLF) | PM | 1.89 |
| 🇨🇦 Tourmaline (TOU) | PM | 1.02 |
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