TSX
1D %
YTD %
27,539.88
0.5%
10.6%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
777.58
1.5%
26.0%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,370.86
0.3%
8.6%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
21,098.29
0.4%
9.4%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.33
6 bps
24 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
44,632.99
0.5%
5.3%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.47
6 bps
25 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.726
0.2%
4.4%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • iA Financial spends $600M on RCG

  • First National gets bought for $3B

  • Celestica jumps 17% on earnings

  • Air Canada falls 12% on profit miss

  • Algoma helps us size up tariff impact

HOT OFF THE PRESS

iA Financial spends $600M on RF Capital

Just over a month after BMO’s $625M acquisition of Burgundy, we’ve got more wealth management consolidation - this time with iA Financial’s ~$600M takeout of RF Capital group (Richardson Wealth), which adds $40B of AUA.

The strategic rationale is clear, as the deal positions IAG as the leading independent wealth platform in the country and grows its geographic footprint outside of Ontario and Quebec by nearly 50%.

With Richardson advisors managing ~$210M per head (roughly 4x iA advisors), it also strengthens iA’s presence in the high net worth segment - and does so at a reasonable price, at 1.5% of AUA or 11.3x EBITDA before synergies.

The transaction will be neutral to core earnings in the first year and accretive by $0.15 and more to core earnings starting in the second year.

Eric Jobin (CFO) - IAG update call

Post-synergies management is pointing to 6.7x, which would translate to a ~$36M uplift in EBITDA - half of which will depend on IAG’s ability to recruit new advisors.

Who could be next? Wellington-Altus launched a process late last year to sell up to 30% of the company in a secondary transaction. Clearly, they’re looking for a liquidity event - and at ~$40B of AUA they could be in the strike zone

First National gets scooped up for $3B

First National (FN), one of Canada’s largest non-bank mortgage lenders, is getting taken out in a $2.9B deal led by Birch Hill Equity Partners and Brookfield after a lengthy strategic review process.

The review attracted multiple bids and for good reason, given FN’s capital-light model that generates income across the mortgage origination, servicing, and securitization value chain. With plenty of time for other offers to surface already…

… support from its founding shareholders (71% ownership), and a purchase price that represents a peak earnings multiple - this bid is likely to be the last.

FUNNY BUSINESS

Of course we lose two solid financials stocks just days after the GO REIT IPO - one step forward, two steps back… for now.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Jeremy Rakusin FirstService (FSV) $826K
Pierre St-Laurent Empire (EMP-A) $391K
Harley Finkelstein Shopify (SHOP) $213K
Jeff Hoffmeister Shopify (SHOP) $244K
Jessica Hertz Shopify (SHOP) $231K
GoldenTree Yellow Pages (Y) $453K

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Celestica (CLS)
1D %
YTD %
278.36
16.9%
109.8%
Air Canada (AC)
1D %
YTD %
19.34
12.3%
13.1%
Electrovaya (ELVA)
1D %
YTD %
6.87
11.0%
95.2%
Ballard (BLDP)
1D %
YTD %
2.58
8.5%
8.0%
BRP Inc. (DOO)
1D %
YTD %
73.06
7.9%
0.2%
Canada Goose (GOOS)
1D %
YTD %
17.95
4.6%
24.3%

Celestica (CLS) finished 17% higher on its Q2 results, which beat top and bottom line estimates handily and was accompanied by a huge bump to full-year guidance.

The beat was powered by another massive quarter from the communications segment, which grew ~75% Y/Y in Q2 and 82% in H1.

With revenue accelerating as strongly as it has through the first half there could be even more upside to the guide, which calls for growth in the 60-65% range.

Air Canada (AC) fell 12% on earnings, where the company edged out revenue estimates but missed on profit due to higher labour and fuel costs. U.S. travel demand remains soft, with management pointing to an 11% decline in Q2 that it expects should stay weak through the back half of the year.

In the transborder market, we continue to see less demand for trips to the U.S. Revenues declined 11% on 8% less capacity despite stronger yields year-over-year

Mark Galardo (CCO) - Q2’25 call

EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 George Weston (WN) 3.06 3.37
🇨🇦 Air Canada (AC) 0.60 0.72
🇨🇦 Secure Waste (SES) 0.13 0.15
🇨🇦 Toromont (TIH) 1.52 1.49
🇨🇦 Ecosynthetix (ECO) 0.00 -
🇨🇦 First National (FN) 1.04 0.90
🇨🇦 Allied REIT (AP-U) 94M 91M
🇨🇦 Algoma Steel (ASTL) -1.02 -0.55
🇨🇦 Intact Financial (IFC) 4.70 4.01
🇨🇦 Trican (TCW) 0.11 0.09

Algoma Steel (ASTL) put up an ugly quarter due to tariffs, which management says drove $30M of revenue impact and $64M of costs. Given the doubling of steel tariffs to 50% was implemented in early June, things could get worse before they get better.

TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) AM 0.08
🇨🇦 CGI (GIB-A) AM 2.08
🇨🇦 Capital Power (CPX) AM 0.50
🇨🇦 First Capital (FCR-U) AM 107M
🇨🇦 Tamarack Valley (TVE) AM 235M
🇨🇦 Parex (PXT) AM 0.56
🇨🇦 Canadian Pacific (CP) PM 1.13
🇨🇦 Kinross (K) PM 0.34
🇨🇦 GFL Environmental (GFL) PM 0.22
🇨🇦 Badger Infra (BDGI) PM 0.77
🇨🇦 Freehold (FRU) PM 67M
🇨🇦 Primaris REIT (PMZ-U) PM 78M
🇨🇦 Exco (XTC) PM 0.18
🇨🇦 Alamos Gold (AGI) PM 0.33
🇨🇦 Timbercreek (TF) PM 0.17
🇨🇦 Info Services (ISC) PM 0.80
🇨🇦 Methanex (MX) PM 0.28
🇨🇦 Agnico Eagle (AEM) PM 1.80
🇨🇦 Kiwetenohk (KEC) PM 0.44

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇺🇸 Goods Balance Adv. -$86B -$98B
🇺🇸 Wholesale Inv. M/M Adv. 0.2% -0.1%
🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence 97.2 95.8
🇺🇸 Home Price Y/Y 2.8% 3.0%
🇺🇸 Home Price M/M -0.2% -0.1%
🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings 7.44M 7.55M
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision 9:45AM 2.75%
🇺🇸 ADP Employment Chg. 8:15AM 78K
🇺🇸 GDP Growth Q/Q Adv. 8:30AM 2.4%
🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales M/M 10:00AM 0.0%
🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision 2:00PM 4.5%

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
69.34
3.9%
3.4%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,325.14
0.3%
26.7%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.16
3.2%
12.1%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
38.15
0.1%
32.1%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
683.43
0.8%
24.1%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
5.63
0.6%
41.4%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
980.56
0.8%
1.9%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,608.00
1.0%
2.0%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
389.21
1.2%
15.0%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
529.70
1.6%
4.0%

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