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WHAT'S ON TAP
New home prices resume drawdown
Input/output PPI print is mixed
Telesat drops 20% on lawsuit
GFL moves headquarters to Miami
HOT OFF THE PRESS
New home prices resume drawdown
New home prices fell in-line with estimates in December, losing 0.2% M/M…
… thanks to a price reversal in the prairies versus last month and an increasing drawdown in Ontario and BC.
With unsold inventory continuing to build, the supply side of the equation isn’t supportive of a recovery just yet.
Industrial products miss, raw materials beat
Industrial product prices fell 0.6% in December, the first down month in the last six and below expectations of a 0.3% gain…
… driven mainly by petroleum products. Raw materials prices surprised to the upside though, gaining 0.5% versus expectations for a decline of similar magnitude…
… on the back of an aggressive, sustained move higher in the price of metal ores.
That’s done all the heavy lifting, offsetting continued weakness across other categories - with crop…
… and crude products trending in the opposite direction.
Telesat drops 20% on creditor lawsuit
Telesat (TSAT) has lost nearly 20% since a group of lenders filed a lawsuit claiming the company improperly transferred 62% of the equity in its LEO business into an entity outside of their reach…
… ahead of a ~$2B wall of debt maturities the company appears unable to pay. With ~$500M in cash and negative FCF, a debt restructuring seems inevitable…
… so the lawsuit is less about damages and more about negotiating leverage. If Telesat is onside legally, creditors would be stuck with a legacy GEO business in structural decline as collateral…
… limiting their ability to dictate terms. If the creditors gain the upper hand, equity value could change hands quickly. Reality is likely to fall somewhere in the middle, but expect volatility until a settlement is reached.
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging the news that GFL Environmental (GFL) is relocating its headquarters to Miami, a move that aligns with its business mix and could signal where management is looking to deploy M&A capital next.
The new HQ could also help close the remaining valuation gap to its U.S. peers, given it makes GFL eligible for additional index inclusion…
… but a sustained re-rate will likely require its leverage profile to close the gap too.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Flagging Blue Ant Media (BAMI), which ran another 7% today ahead of the shareholder vote on its $89M acquisition of Thunderbird. After the close, the company announced the transaction was approved - adding scale to the newly public entity.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| John Risley | MDA Space (MDA) | $3.3M |
| Chad Sorba | Denison (DML) | $310K |
| Janna Switzer | Denison (DML) | $155K |
| Warren Raczynski | Cdn. Natural (CNQ) | $374K |
| Devin Lowe | Cdn. Natural (CNQ) | $493K |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 GURU Energy (GURU) | 459K | -807K |
| 🇨🇦 NovaGold (NG) | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| 🇺🇸 P&G (PG) | 1.88 | 1.86 |
| 🇺🇸 General Electric (GE) | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| 🇺🇸 Abbott (ABT) | 1.50 | 1.49 |
| 🇺🇸 Intel (INTC) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 New Home Prices M/M | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 GDP Q/Q | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 Personal Income M/M | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 🇺🇸 Personal Spending M/M | 0.5% | 0.5% |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales M/M | 8:30AM | 1.2% |
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