Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from VersaBank for research coverage.
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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Manufacturing rebound drives GDP growth
GDP in February shaped up as expected, rising 0.2% M/M…
… on the back of a 0.4% rise in goods-producing industries, which carried limited growth in services GDP.
At the sector level, the print was carried by the rebound in manufacturing…
… which should continue into March if preliminary estimates for manufacturing sales are any indication (up 3.5% M/M).
That should offset weakness in other categories like public administration…
… to hold GDP steady, with early estimates calling for stagnant growth in March.
Net direct investment position declines
Our net direct investment position shrunk for the first time since 2012, with foreign direct investment rising $103B Y/Y (up 7%) - largely driven by the wave of M&A we saw through 2025…
… that’s continued through the start of 2026, while international M&A activity from Canadian companies has slowed - particularly in the US…
… resulting in a 3% gain in direct investment abroad, the lowest reading since 2010.
VERSABANK
VersaBank (VBNK) has started a pilot program with FinanceIt Canada for a real-time version of its rapidly expanding Structured Receivable Program…
… that would enable its partners to finance loans within hours, improving their returns and reducing reliance on traditional warehouse financing. While it’ll take time, success here should expand the bank’s addressable market…
… translating to improved efficiency and ROE as it scales.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Bombardier (BBD-B) ran more than 20% on the back of a big Q1 earnings beat, which came with a ~$3B step up in the backlog…
… and more debt reduction, with leverage falling to 1.8x - prompting S&P to revise its outlook to positive earlier in the month.
The strong demand environment, lower debt service burden, and growing skew towards aftermarket services…
… prompted management to take its FCF guide above $1B for the year, up from $800M at the midpoint previously…
… and well above consensus estimates of $890M, resulting in only a turn of multiple expansion as analysts upped their forecasts.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Bombardier (BBD-B) | 1.81 | 0.77 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada Packers (CPKR) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| 🇨🇦 Gildan (GIL) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| 🇨🇦 Spin Master (TOY) | -0.24 | -0.30 |
| 🇨🇦 AltaGas (ALA) | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| 🇨🇦 Air Canada (AC) | -0.05 | -0.46 |
| 🇨🇦 Martinrea (MRE) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| 🇨🇦 Agnico (AEM) | 3,41 | 3.21 |
| 🇨🇦 Badger Infra (BDGI) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| 🇨🇦 Black Diamond (BDI) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Magna (MG) | AM | 1.01 |
| 🇨🇦 TC Energy (TRP) | AM | 0.98 |
| 🇨🇦 Brookfield (BEP) | AM | -0.44 |
| 🇨🇦 Imperial (IMO) | AM | 2.40 |
| 🇨🇦 Hudbay (HBM) | AM | 0.34 |
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