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WHAT'S ON TAP
GDP misses expectations
Fiscal deficit hits $26B YTD
Fontera runs 40% on upstream sale
HOT OFF THE PRESS
GDP misses estimates
GDP in November came up short of expectations, edging down slightly…
… on the back of a 0.3% decline in goods-producing industries, which more than offset the 0.1% increase in services GDP.
At the sector level, manufacturing and wholesale trade dragged down the print - driven by automotive supply chain hiccups…
… with semiconductor shortages causing a 6% drop in motor vehicle manufacturing…
… and a 13% drop in sector wholesaling.
Fiscal deficit hits $26B
The budgetary deficit was $8B in November, in-line with last year’s print and climbing to $26B YTD…
… adding roughly $4B versus the same period of 2024. That should expand materially in the last four months towards the ~$78B Liberal target, as new program spending (defense, housing) ramps up…
… and tariff revenue slows down.
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging Poilievre’s leadership review, which passed with an overwhelming 87% of the vote and came with a viral speech of his own. With that internal hurdle cleared and rising Liberal seat projections after Carney’s Davos speech…
… expect the battle of narratives to heat up.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Frontera Energy (FEC) gained over 40% Friday after announcing the US$622M sale of its Colombian E&P business...
… US$370M of which the company intends to distribute to shareholders post-close ($7.18 per share). Netting that out from Friday’s $9.40 close, the market values the remaining infrastructure business at ~US$100M ($2.22 per share)…
… which could prove conservative, at <1x management’s 2025 EBITDA guide.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Pruneau | Metro (MRU) | $367K |
| Genevieve Bich | Metro (MRU) | $403K |
| Robin Zabek | Cdn. Natural (CNQ) | $1.0M |
EARNINGS
FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Cdn. National (CNR) | 2.08 | 1.98 |
| 🇨🇦 Gatekeeper (GSI) | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 🇨🇦 Brookfield (BEP) | 744M | 665M |
| 🇨🇦 Imperial (IMO) | 1.97 | 1.89 |
| 🇺🇸 Exxon (XOM) | 1.71 | 1.69 |
| 🇺🇸 Chevron (CVX) | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| 🇺🇸 American Express (AXP) | 3.53 | 3.55 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Walt Disney (DIS) | AM | 1.58 |
| 🇺🇸 Palantir (PLTR) | PM | 0.23 |
ECONOMIC DATA
FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 GDP M/M | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 PPI M/M | 0.5% | 0.2% |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 ISM Mftg. PMI | 10:00AM | 48.3 |
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