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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Payroll employment falls, job vacancies rise
Payroll employment fell 0.2% in December - led by declines in transportation, wholesale trade, and manufacturing…
… which has shed nearly 3% through 2025. That could be short-lived, with vacancies picking up in the sector alongside food services and construction…
… and adding 5% overall - the first meaningful increase in a long time, with gains concentrated in Ontario (up 6%) and BC (up 14%).
Current account deficit improves in Q4
Q4’s current account deficit came in better than expected, continuing Q3’s improvement to $0.7B on the back of an improved trade balance.
The financial account surplus grew significantly, with $40B of net inflows into Canadian securities led by demand for government bonds ($34B)…
… with some help from equities ($6B). That translated to corporate investment, which rose to $25B on the back of elevated M&A ($16B) - driving the highest annual foreign direct investment since 2007 (and a number of Canadian takeouts).
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging Block’s >4,000 person layoff, which is huge on a relative basis (over 40%). Whether it’s truly AI related, or a convenient excuse to get rid of bloat…
… I’ll be watching to see if it’s a one-off, or the first domino to fall (would free up cash for buybacks). With the stock up over 20% after hours, I’d bet it’s not the last big cut we see in tech.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Nicholson | Int. Petroleum (IPCO) | $756K |
| Andrew Phillips | PrairieSky (PSK) | $152K |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 CCL Ind. (CCL-B) | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| 🇨🇦 CIBC (CM) | 2.76 | 2.39 |
| 🇨🇦 Gildan (GIL) | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| 🇨🇦 Royal Bank (RY) | 4.08 | 3.84 |
| 🇨🇦 Cascades (CAS) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| 🇨🇦 TD Bank (TD) | 2.44 | 2.26 |
| 🇨🇦 Enerflex (EFX) | -0.19 | -0.06 |
| 🇨🇦 Northland (NPI) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| 🇨🇦 Stella-Jones (SJ) | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| 🇨🇦 Canadian Utes (CU) | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| 🇨🇦 ATCO (ACO-X) | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| 🇨🇦 Jamieson (JWEL) | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| 🇨🇦 Pembina (PPL) | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| 🇨🇦 Black Diamond (BDI) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
To varying degrees, the big-6 banks beat estimates in Q1…
… led by record trading activity, as expected after BNS kicked off reporting season with huge numbers in equities and fixed income. Given National (NA) and CIBC (CM) have more relative exposure…
… it’s not surprising to see them trade higher than peers on results, which were strong across business units - driving group-leading ROE expansion.
The extent to which that can drive valuations higher from here is unclear though, with multiples pretty extended at current levels (at or near peak)…
… and impaired loan balances remaining elevated - with all banks highlighting trade uncertainty and housing as areas of concern.
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 AtkinsRealis (ATRL) | AM | 0.97 |
| 🇨🇦 Docebo (DCBO) | AM | 0.36 |
| 🇨🇦 Boralex (BLX) | AM | 0.64 |
| 🇨🇦 TransAlta (TA) | AM | 0.11 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Current Account | -0.7B | -7.7B |
| 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 GDP M/M | 8:30AM | 0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 PPI M/M | 8:30AM | 0.3% |
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