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WHAT'S ON TAP
Canada & Mexico lock arms
$9B of capital returns to Canada
Anglo Teck merger has rocky start
Pollard hits lottery with new deal
CPX adds $100M of EBITDA
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Canada & Mexico lock arms pre-USMCA
Carney is looking to beef up trade with Mexico ahead of USMCA negotiations, announcing a new partnership designed to deepen collaboration between the two on infrastructure, security, and supply chains.
While Mexico’s share of total activity (~3%) has been creeping higher in the wake of U.S. tariffs, it’s done so on the import front - adding to the imbalance of the existing trade relationship.
We’ll need to see this even out some over time for this partnership to be a success.
$9B of capital returns to Canada
We had a net inflow of $9B in July, the first in six months - with $27B of foreign investment more than offsetting $17B of Canadian investment abroad…
… which was driven entirely by a record $17B allocated to foreign bonds…
… specifically U.S. government paper, which attracted $13B in July.
It was a huge month for foreign inflows, which reversed $22B of net divestment through the first half of 2025 thanks to a $12B increase in equity market allocation…
… and $27B of investment into government paper, more than making up for a $16B outflow from corporate debt.
FUNNY BUSINESS
The Anglo Teck mega merger is off to a rocky start, with Industry Minister Melanie Joly indicating more concessions need to be made to get it over the finish line. Smart strategy, drawing out a bid before pressing for more…
… but Anglo’s not exactly swallowing a crown jewel in Teck, given the recent struggles at its QB2 mine in Chile. Push too hard, and this one could fall through.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Pollard Banknote (PBL) ran 11% on news that the National Lottery of Belgium had selected it as its gaming platform provider - signing a 12-year deal worth roughly $290M ($24M per year, or ~4%).
The deal builds on Pollard’s existing instant ticket relationship with the entity and supports growth in its international segment, which management has highlighted as an important piece of its forward strategy...
… that if executed over the coming quarters, could bring PBL’s valuation closer to its long-term average.
Capital Power (CPX) got a 6% lift on a contract extension at its gas facility in Michigan, adding 10 years and $100M of adj. EBITDA annually…
… thanks to an ~80% increase in the contracted price, as data center demand breathes some life back into U.S. power markets.
That same theme has driven the bid for gas-fired power producers, CPX included - which currently trades over two turns above its long-term average.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Little | Suncor (SU) | $535K |
| Riley Frame | Peyto (PEY) | $383K |
| Lee Curran | Peyto (PEY) | $454K |
| Jean-Paul Lachance | Peyto (PEY) | $641K |
| Crissy Rafoss | Peyto (PEY) | $146K |
| Eric Boyko | Stingray (RAY) | $723K |
| William Lytle | B2Gold (BTO) | $554K |
| Larry Okada | Santacruz (SCZ) | $339K |
| Chandra Henry | Headwater (HWX) | $162K |
| Neil O'Brien | Luca Mining (LUCA) | $511K |
| Russell Hallbauer | Taseko (TKO) | $246K |
| David Fennell | Greenheart (GHRT) | $2.3M |
| Dale Andres | Artemis (ARTG) | $229K |
| Constantine Pefanis | Empire (EMP-A) | $151K |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 FedEx (FDX) | 3.83 | 3.75 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Business Barometer | 50.2 | - |
| 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims | 231K | 240K |
| 🇺🇸 Fed Mftg. Index | 23.2 | 2.3 |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales M/M | 8:30AM | -0.8% |
COMMODITIES
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