After Carney’s budget address yesterday, the headline doing the rounds is his aim to double non-U.S. exports over ten years - adding $300B in new trade. While ambitious, the segment is already growing quickly…

… meaning the impact might be less pronounced than headlines would suggest. Assuming a doubling from 2024 and 25% growth in U.S. exports over that time period (conservative), we’ll have reduced reliance on our neighbours…

… but not to the point where Canada can operate independently. Bottom line: there’s no short-term solution and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.