Building permits fell 8% to $12.1B in February, well short of expectations…

… thanks to broad-based weakness in non-residential activity, which was down 24% driven mainly by a ~$1B decline in institutional permitting.

Residential intentions were up small on the month, with a $180M Ontario-led multi-unit increase absorbing a $45M drawdown in single-family.

GFL Environmental (GFL) sold off over 10% after announcing the $6.4B acquisition of SECURE Waste (SES), representing roughly 11x forward EBITDA - a ~20% premium to SES shares but a discount to GFL…

… enabling it to fund 80% of the deal with equity, keeping leverage neutral. Investors are likely concerned by the multiple and the target’s industrial focus, which is more volatile than GFL’s solid waste business…

… but not materially so, with 80% recurring volumes and the western Canada footprint acting as a natural hedge to higher diesel prices - which eat into solid waste margins. Post-close, FCF conversion should expand…

… providing more rope for executing density-enhancing M&A, of which management expects to do another ~$500M this year. With the peer group discount opening up…

… it’s an interesting time if you think the team behind over 300 deals might understand value creation better than public investors.

BRP Inc. (DOO) should trade off today after pulling guidance on the heels of recent tariff amendments that slap a 25% blanket import tax on snowmobiles and off-road vehicles…

… that management expects will cost the company an additional $500M+ in fiscal 2027. With the stock up over 100% in the past year, it’s likely to give some back…

… until a resolution is reached (CUSMA?).

Chemtrade (CHE-U) sold off ~20% after announcing its rezoning application was rejected, putting a huge amount of chlor-alkali production beyond 2030 at risk…

… which would materially impact EBITDA, with management citing a ~$17M earnings hit from previous three week turnarounds at the facility. While a full shutdown would hurt less than that implies ($295M)…

… given associated overhead wouldn’t be there, the market now has to price the probability of a resolution and the impairment in a no-go scenario - which should be the focus on CHE’s next call.

MDA Space (MDA) ran another 7% after Amazon acquired Globalstar for $11B, removing the risk of SpaceX buying it and guaranteeing the ~$1B of MDA’s backlog tied to its LEO constellation…

… giving investors enough confidence to push the valuation to new highs, nearly double the long-term average.

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