Building permit values for March fell 4.1% M/M, below analyst estimates for a 1.2% drop on the back of ~15% lower institutional and commercial permitting, which more than offset 2% gains in residential activity.

The residential improvement came despite continued weakness in single unit activity, with a 6% jump in multi-unit permitting…

… led by a rebound in activity in Vancouver. Encouraging to see given the recent challenges in BC, though Ontario continues to struggle with adding new supply.

The rebound in multi-unit permitting carried through to housing starts, which came in at 279K for April, up 30% M/M and blowing by estimates of 228K thanks to a jump in multi-unit starts.

While Vancouver bucked the negative YTD trend with a 6% Y/Y increase, the provincial divergence largely continued, with strength in Quebec and Alberta offsetting weakness in Ontario.

Despite some signs of a turnaround we’re staying cautious here, as continued builds in unabsorbed multi-unit inventory should tame developer appetite.