The last of the major Canadian banks reported yesterday in what was a pretty solid earnings season, with each posting a beat versus street estimates and generally strong results across most business lines.
We summarize the key themes below, and give our view on which Canadian bank looks most attractive today.
Wealth management benefits from asset growth
Wealth management was a highlight for the Big-6, which should be a sticky Y/Y growth driver as we continue through 2025.
Results in the segment were supported by strong growth in total Assets Under Administration, which benefited from both market appreciation and client inflows.
Volatile backdrop drives capital markets strength
It was a great quarter for capital markets too, with a good debt underwriting environment and heightened global markets activity driving most of the strength.
Global markets results were supported by volatile market conditions that drove higher client flows, particularly in the equities business.
While markets remain frothy, we’d highlight that trading outperformance tends to be less durable than improvements in other business lines (lending, wealth management, insurance, etc.)
Conservative outlook, with provisioning to match
Despite results, all management teams gave a somewhat cautious outlook, noting the uncertainty linked to potential tariff impacts. This conservatism was visible in results as well, with loan loss provisioning activity rising during the quarter on both impaired and performing loans.
As per usual though, Canadian banks are well prepared, with significant capital buffers over and above regulatory minimums.
Trading near average value, time to be selective
There was a lot to like about the Q1 the Canadian banks just put up, but with some of the strength (trading) being potentially short-lived, an uncertain macro backdrop, and valuations trading near historical averages, it’s still time to be selective in our view.
On the back of a strong quarter, we think BMO looks interesting here. Its discount to peers has widened post-pandemic and could close should the bank continue to execute.
With ~40% of its business in the U.S., it could also be more insulated than others in the event a trade war wreaks havoc on the Canadian economy.
