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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
100K full-time job losses
The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February, above expectations at 6.6%…

… on the back of a 108K decline in full-time employment, driven primarily by private sector job loss (down 73K).

At the industry level, employment was down across the board…

… illustrating the structural challenges facing our labour market. Though job vacancies in December were up for the first time in forever, there’s a long way to go…

… before long-term unemployment returns to more normal levels.

Manufacturing slows
Manufacturing sales of $69B in January beat estimates, but were still down 3% - the largest sequential drop in three years…

… driven by a 39% decline in motor vehicle sales, echoing January’s trade print and flowing through to wholesale sales - which fell 1% M/M.

While short-lived, the production stoppage impacting the category showed up across the print - with transportation equipment inventory rising 4%…

… and capacity utilization in the industry falling 9%, dragging plant efficiency down for the third month straight.

ON OUR RADAR
Flagging CCL Industries (CCL-B), who announced a $151M acquisition of Sleever International, representing just over 6x EBITDA - well below where it trades…

… which should drive a re-rate once integrated. With Sleever operating at roughly half of CCL’s margin profile…

… improving the target’s economics post-close is another lever to drive value, which should be achievable as a function of scale - with the combined label business doing $700M in revenue.

That simple buy and build playbook has legs - with the company’s growing cash balance and low leverage…

… lining up with management’s more favourable M&A outlook.
Well, I would say in the M&A space, we are seeing some signs of valuations coming back from insanity to something more normal.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Bird Construction (BDT) added another 4% Friday, extending its post-Q4 run to 10% - as the market prices in future growth…

… supported by its record $5B backlog, with an additional $4.5B pending and $1.5B of recurring revenue. Underpinning that backlog are tailwinds in nuclear, infrastructure, and recent acquisitions…

… which should drive profitability, with management reiterating its 8% adj. EBITDA margin target for 2027.

The market’s starting to believe it, with valuation premiums in construction (BDT, ARE) now ahead of engineering firms (ATRL, STN, WSP)…

… after highlighting the discount last year.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Norman Edwards | Cdn. Natural (CNQ) | $33.1M |
| Kelly Freeman | Nutrien (NTR) | $621K |
| James Halliday | Element (EFN) | $671K |
| Wayne Gingrich | Bird (BDT) | $334K |
| J.P. De Montigny | Savaria (SIS) | $255K |
| Robert Blackadar | Badger (BDGI) | $185K |
Flagging the buying from Bird’s CFO, bringing his total to ~$600K since late 2025. At the company level, there’s been $2.6M of buying since the last sale in 2024.
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate | 6.7% | 6.6% |
| 🇨🇦 Employment Change | -84K | 10K |
| 🇨🇦 Capacity Utilization | 78.5% | 78.4% |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Housing Starts | 7:15AM | 245K |
| 🇨🇦 Inflation M/M | 7:30AM | 0.6% |
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