TSX
1D %
YTD %
32,541.93
0.9%
2.1%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
1,018.11
2.8%
2.5%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,632.19
0.6%
3.3%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
22,105.36
0.9%
4.9%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.28
1 bp
11 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
46,558.47
0.3%
3.8%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.51
3 bps
7 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.728
0.7%
0.1%

WHAT'S ON TAP

HOT OFF THE PRESS

100K full-time job losses

The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February, above expectations at 6.6%

on the back of a 108K decline in full-time employment, driven primarily by private sector job loss (down 73K).

At the industry level, employment was down across the board

… illustrating the structural challenges facing our labour market. Though job vacancies in December were up for the first time in forever, there’s a long way to go…

… before long-term unemployment returns to more normal levels.

Manufacturing slows

Manufacturing sales of $69B in January beat estimates, but were still down 3% - the largest sequential drop in three years…

… driven by a 39% decline in motor vehicle sales, echoing January’s trade print and flowing through to wholesale sales - which fell 1% M/M.

While short-lived, the production stoppage impacting the category showed up across the print - with transportation equipment inventory rising 4%

… and capacity utilization in the industry falling 9%, dragging plant efficiency down for the third month straight.

ON OUR RADAR

Flagging CCL Industries (CCL-B), who announced a $151M acquisition of Sleever International, representing just over 6x EBITDA - well below where it trades

… which should drive a re-rate once integrated. With Sleever operating at roughly half of CCL’s margin profile

… improving the target’s economics post-close is another lever to drive value, which should be achievable as a function of scale - with the combined label business doing $700M in revenue.

That simple buy and build playbook has legs - with the company’s growing cash balance and low leverage…

… lining up with management’s more favourable M&A outlook.

Well, I would say in the M&A space, we are seeing some signs of valuations coming back from insanity to something more normal.

Geoffrey Martin (CEO) - CCL Q4’25 call

GAINERS & LOSERS

Mattr (MATR)
1D %
YTD %
8.86
8.2%
11.0%
Haivision (HAI)
1D %
YTD %
8.00
17.1%
52.7%
Itafos (IFOS)
1D %
YTD %
4.27
4.7%
45.7%
Enghouse (ENGH)
1D %
YTD %
15.19
14.5%
25.4%
Bird (BDT)
1D %
YTD %
34.08
3.8%
19.5%
Methanex (MX)
1D %
YTD %
71.03
10.2%
30.5%

Bird Construction (BDT) added another 4% Friday, extending its post-Q4 run to 10% - as the market prices in future growth

supported by its record $5B backlog, with an additional $4.5B pending and $1.5B of recurring revenue. Underpinning that backlog are tailwinds in nuclear, infrastructure, and recent acquisitions

which should drive profitability, with management reiterating its 8% adj. EBITDA margin target for 2027.

The market’s starting to believe it, with valuation premiums in construction (BDT, ARE) now ahead of engineering firms (ATRL, STN, WSP)…

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Norman Edwards Cdn. Natural (CNQ) $33.1M
Kelly Freeman Nutrien (NTR) $621K
James Halliday Element (EFN) $671K
Wayne Gingrich Bird (BDT) $334K
J.P. De Montigny Savaria (SIS) $255K
Robert Blackadar Badger (BDGI) $185K

Flagging the buying from Bird’s CFO, bringing his total to ~$600K since late 2025. At the company level, there’s been $2.6M of buying since the last sale in 2024.

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.6%
🇨🇦 Employment Change -84K 10K
🇨🇦 Capacity Utilization 78.5% 78.4%
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Housing Starts 7:15AM 245K
🇨🇦 Inflation M/M 7:30AM 0.6%

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