• Trump walks back his aggressive stance on China

• Comparing the Liberal and Conservative spending plans

• PPI comes in ahead of expectations, but might not last

• Waste management stocks are outperforming, could it continue?

• Bitcoin breaks out, gold sells off

After the hard sell-off on Monday we got more positive China talk out of the Trump administration:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed a similar outlook for de-escalation, calling the current situation unsustainable. Funny what a little selling can do…

We’re still not holding our breath for a near-term resolution, as talks between the two superpowers haven’t formally begun, and China is threatening retaliation to any country negotiating U.S. tariff exemptions that disadvantage Chinese interests.

Meanwhile, on the back of tariffs the IMF just cut its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by 90 bps and its Canadian outlook by 60 bps. Ouch.

How will liberals & conservatives split the pot?

With the election right around the corner, we’re doing a lot of work to answer the question: which companies stand to gain/lose the most from new leadership?

With the conservative spending plan released yesterday, we’re kicking things off with a side-by-side on each party’s approach to real estate, energy, and defense. Check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/97

Industrial PPI tops estimates despite weak oil

Canada's industrial PPI rose 0.5% M/M in March, outpacing consensus at 0.3%. It was the 6^th straight monthly increase, as metals and lumber (up 3.8% and 3.1%, respectively) offset a 3.8% drop in energy products.

With crude oil off more than 10% in April, we expect both input and output PPI to moderate further.

Quick take: Is waste still safe?

As they say, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

That’s certainly been the case for most waste management names, who’ve grown revenue primarily through acquisitions over the past year.

Combined with strong pricing power, the basket has outperformed markets significantly YTD which begs the question: is waste still a good place to be? We give our quick take in the full bite below.

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/98

We’re finding it harder to believe there’s a real plan in place by the day…

For our YTD insider activity, go here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/94

• BMO pulls out of mutual fund partnership with U.S. tech investor Cathie Wood

• Engine Capital Announces It Intends to Vote "FOR" All Nine of Simpson Oil's Nominees for Election to Parkland Corporation's Board of Directors

• NOVAGOLD and Paulson Advisers Announce $1 Billion Transaction to Acquire 50% of the Donlin Gold Project From Barrick

Precious metals names sold off hard as prospects of a geopolitical cooldown drove some profit taking on what’s been the best trade of the year so far. The exception here is NOVAGOLD Resources (NG), which popped nearly 40% on the acquisition of Barrick’s Donlin Gold project in Alaska for $1.1B.

It was the same news that drove risk assets like Bitcoin materially higher on the day, giving Galaxy Digital (GLXY) an 18% lift.

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