Inflation print shapes up as expected, anchored by fuel costs

Eli Rodney
July 15, 2025
Inflation

June’s inflation tracked in-line with expectations, with headline inflation of 1.9% inching higher versus May’s 1.7% and core trim holding steady at 3.0%.

Most categories moderated versus last month’s reading, with the exception of clothing, health care…

… and transportation, which remains down Y/Y but to a lesser degree - as the drag from gasoline prices improves

… but is still off materially Y/Y, weighing on both private and public transportation.

In shelter, inflation remains anchored by servicing costs (mortgage, rent, etc.)…

… and food inflation remains broad-based, though some categories have started to regress.

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