• Manufacturing slowdown continues

• Dundee offers $1.3B for Adriatic

• What’s next in the Middle East?

• The U.S. Army’s 250th birthday, sponsored by crypto

• Kraken CFO dumps ~$3M

• Peller jumps 9% on good grapes

The manufacturing slowdown continues

Manufacturing sales for April fell 2.8% M/M, below expectations for a 2.0% contraction and the third straight monthly decline driven by weakness in petroleum products (-11%) and motor vehicles (-8%).

There should be more room to the downside over the coming months, as unfilled orders (backlog) start to moderate from pre-tariff levels…

… and sales decelerate faster than inventory balances.

The manufacturing weakness should continue to pressure wholesale activity, with April’s 2.3% drop missing big versus expectations for a decline of 0.9%.

Dundee offers $1.3B in the latest silver deal

On Friday, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM) announced a $1.3B takeout bid for Adriatic Metals and its producing Vares silver mine in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which compliments DPM’s existing Balkan exposure.

The rationale is clear as the mine adds to DPM’s production and reserve life, weighing the NAV more heavily towards cash flows - which trade at a premium. It also adds exploration upside via the 4,400-hectare land package owned by Adriatic.

It’s the second big silver deal from a Canadian miner recently, following Pan American’s $2.1B takeout of MAG in May. With silver up more than 25% YTD and the gold-to-silver ratio still elevated, it may not be the last.

What’s next in the Middle East and for oil?

In our look at the Canadian oil patch, we pointed out that oil is always a headline away from a material move higher. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran was that headline, driving strong performance on Friday.

The next headline market participants are speculating on is the closure of the Hormuz Strait - a critical oil chokepoint that nearly 20% of global crude production passes through each year.

Logistics aside, I’d wager that’s highly unlikely to happen, given the impact would be felt more by “friends” like China than by “enemies” like the U.S. and Europe…

… but insurance premiums on ships passing through the strait could rise, creating an economic case to divert marine traffic - a development that would push shipping costs and ultimately oil prices higher, benefitting producers.

A celebration of the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday was held over the weekend… I’ll let the picture do the talking.

Some of the toughest people on planet earth… sponsored by meme coins.

Flagging the Kraken Robotics (PNG) sale, which comes after a number of positive industry and company-specific developments. The CFO’s sale marks the first by any insider this year, and the first sale of size in more than two years.

• NFI announces completion of $600M second lien notes offering

• Federal pension manager shifts more focus to investing in Canada

• Brookfield to buy internet provider Hotwire in $7B deal, sources say

• First Capital REIT announces completion of $300M offering of senior unsecured debentures

Andrew Peller (ADW) was up 9% on earnings, with EBITDA of $13.5M coming in way ahead of the street at $4.5M thanks to margin expansion that the company expects it can maintain with the help of the Ontario Grape Support Program.

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