• Employment beats, unemployment slides

• TSX index shakeup to drive $200M

• High Liner’s latest deal isn’t fishy

• Kraken jumps on board addition

• Rig count declines help case for oil

Employment beats, unemployment slides

We got labour market data for May on Friday, with unemployment inching higher to 7% as expected…

… and employment gains of ~9K beating expectations for a 15K loss, led by strength in full-time employment.

At the sector level, gains in wholesale trade and losses in public administration largely offset performance in prior months, while tariff-induced manufacturing weakness is starting to show in the numbers.

The manufacturing slowdown is clear in the regional data, with cities more reliant on the automotive sector posting steep Y/Y increases in unemployment.

Those regional trends should continue in the near-term and if we don’t reach a trade agreement soon, we’d expect flow-through impacts to unemployment duration.

TSX shakeup to drive millions in flows

Friday after the close we got some highly anticipated updates to the TSX index:

We’d expect RBA shares to have support ahead of the index inclusion on June 23^rd , in anticipation of passive fund flows. Here’s the napkin math on magnitude:

That’s ~$200M of indiscriminate buying, and active capital now knows it’s coming.

Nothing fishy about HLF’s latest deal

High Liner Foods (HLF) was up ~10% on Friday after announcing the $55M acquisition of two leading battered seafood brands from Conagra Brands. By 2027, the deal should add $11M in EBITDA (+11%) and 29M pounds of sales volume (+12%).

Strategically, the deal secures existing contract manufacturing work HLF had with the brands, and unlocks incremental sales opportunities through new distribution and client relationships.

With Musk deleting his most controversial takes from his feud with Trump after the president took a firmer stance against him, it’s likely the drama is over for now.

What comes next remains to be seen, though we can’t help but draw parallels to Alibaba founder Jack Ma’s much less critical comments of China’s political regime that resulted in months of radio silence and speculation he was kidnapped.

In Musk’s case, government contracts with SpaceX and regulatory actions that touch all of his companies could be in play. If he goes off the grid for a few months, we have a hunch where he might be…

• AtkinsRealis completes sale of 6.76% interest in Highway 407 ETR

• Cameco reports expected increase in its share of Westinghouse 2025 adjusted EBITDA

• LNG pipeline receives green light from B.C. regulator

There’s been movement on Sunoco’s acquisition of Parkland (PKI), with Engine Capital (2.5% owner) coming out against the deal. We’re betting it gets over the finish line, with Simpson Oil (20% owner) changing its tune in favour of the transaction.

Kraken Robotics (PNG) jumped 14% on the back of a strong edition to the board, adding defense industry veteran Kristin Robertson - who spent nearly three decades at Boeing and Raytheon across verticals like autonomous vehicles, space, and liquids robotics. Given thin liquidity, a large buyer likely moved the market two days after the release.

Neo Performance Materials (NEO) was up on its new buyback plan, which allows it to repurchase 3.3M shares (10% of the float) over the next year.

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

Oil prices have started to rebound lately, thanks in part to a lower rig count in the permian that should be supportive of a tighter supply backdrop.

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