• GDP growth beats expectations but starts to show cracks

• Steel & aluminum tariffs set to double this week

• Trump says he’s done playing nice

• A familiar face buys EQB’s post-earnings dip

• This week will be filled with geopolitical headlines

• Earnings momentum sends DOO and LB higher

GDP tops estimates, but cracks form

Friday’s GDP print came in hot, jumping 0.5% Q/Q and growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%, well above estimates for 1.7% growth.

The gain was driven by a surge in U.S. exports…

… and a build in non-farm inventories, as companies brace for impact before tariffs.

Overall results were pared-down by a similar jump in pre-tariff imports…

… and a drastic slowdown in real estate resale activity - a topic we’ve started doing more work on.

While preliminary forecasts for April call for a 0.1% M/M gain, the outlook beyond that is less positive, with final demand showing no growth for the first time since 2023.

The flat reading was driven by a 0.8% sequential decline in fixed capital formation…

… and moderating growth in household consumption, which could signal a consumer under pressure when viewed in conjunction with a lower household savings rate and relative disposable income growth.

Steel & aluminum tariffs set to hit 50%

Trump seems hell-bent on rebuilding the U.S. steel industry, promising to double the in-place steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% this Wednesday. If implemented, the tariffs should further inflate steel product prices, which have climbed ~15% this year.

The jump in border tax would have an outsized impact on Canada, given we’re responsible for nearly a quarter of all U.S. imports.

The escalation represents 2x and 5x the previous Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, respectively, which should magnify the impact of cross-border flows the longer the dispute drags on.

We dug into the primary metals value chain in January, highlighting some tariff-exposed companies. With the basket recovering some lost ground recently, we’d expect near-term weakness in shares.

On Friday, we considered the possibility that Trump would have too much on his plate to let the “Trump always chickens out” rhetoric live rent free in his head… turns out it’s buying furniture and preparing for a long stay.

Flagging the EQB buy, as it marks Stephen Smith’s largest purchase this year, which comes after a 7% post-earnings drawdown in the stock.

• Ukraine launches major drone attack on Russian bombers

• Hegseth warns China poses ‘imminent’ threat to Taiwan and urges Asia to boost defense

• Mark Carney names former UN ambassador as chief of staff

• Ontario to strike trade agreements with Alberta, Saskatchewan and P.E.I. ahead of Carney meeting

BRP Inc. (DOO) extended its post-earnings run, up >20% in the last two days with help from a few analyst upgrades before the open on Friday.

Laurentian Bank (LB) caught a bid following its Q2 print, where EPS of $0.73 topped estimates despite a small miss on revenue. Provisions for credit losses fell Y/Y, with management highlighting resilience and growth runway in its commercial loan book.

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

Was this forwarded to you? Join hundreds of finance professionals reading The Morning Meeting by clicking the button below.