# Bullpen Finance

> High quality, trustworthy Canadian market research for finance professionals and retail investors.

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## Posts
- [Unemployment hits two-year low, RUS runs 85% YTD](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/unemployment-hits-two-year-low-rus-runs-85-ytd): Morning 🤝 we've got a breakdown of the strong jobs numbers, the Ivey PMI print, Russel Metals' YTD double, and Altus Group's Q2 rally. Let's get into it.
- [Altus Group runs 15% on Q2 beat, improved outlook, and buybacks](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/altus-group-runs-15-on-q2-beat-improved-outlook-and-buybacks): Altus Group (AIF) jumped 15% on its Q2 beat, which came with a bump to the 2026 guide and an accelerated rule of 40 target - with management aiming to exit 2027 above the mark thanks to recent non-core divestitures and the coming retirement of its legacy platforms, which will remove some excess overhead. All else equal, it wouldn’t be surprising to see AIF shares get a re-rate once there but they won’t be shy on the buyback if it doesn’t - with ~$450M deployed YTD and a 20% reduction in share count.
- [Russel Metals runs 15% on Q2 blowout](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/russel-metals-runs-15-on-q2-blowout): Russel Metals (RUS) added another 15% on the back of a Q2 that blew estimates out of the water, driven by higher prices and record shipment volumes tied to the ramp up of its Kloeckner acquisition - which should increase contribution from the US as it scales and drive 100-200 bps of gross margin expansion over current levels, which sit at three-year highs ($529 per ton).
- [Ivey PMI edges lower, prices stay elevated, inventory balances build](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/ivey-pmi-edges-lower-prices-stay-elevated-inventory-balances-build): The Ivey PMI came in at 55.1, indicating purchasing activity continues to expand and with the price index remaining elevated for the fifth month straight, most of that expansion is likely inflation-driven - though building an inventory buffer to protect against longer supplier delivery times could also be a factor. The employment index edged lower for the third straight month, but with it sitting above 50 - it’s no surprise that manufacturing employment increased in July.
- [Unemployment beats expectations and hits two-year low](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/unemployment-beats-expectations-and-hits-two-year-low): The unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in July, better than expectations for a flat reading and the lowest level in two years - thanks to a 75K gain in employment, which was split evenly between part-time and full-time work. The sector skew was also positive - with public sector losses more than offset by trade, finance, and construction among other categories. There’s still work to do on the demographic mix, with young job seekers sitting below pre-COVID trends while employment in the 55-64 age group tracks above average.
- [Jamieson's $2.5B take-private, Shopify's Q2 beat](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/jamieson-s-2-5b-take-private-shopify-s-q2-beat): Morning 🤝 we've got a breakdown of the $2.5B bid for Jamieson, Shopify's big Q2, Gran Tierra's $1.3B divestiture, and a couple of big earnings selloffs. Let's get into it.
- [Premium Brands trades off 14% on cut to guidance](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/premium-brands-trades-off-14-on-cut-to-guidance): Premium Brands (PBH) sold off 14% on its Q2, which missed small but came with a cut to the 2026 guide - driven by deferred launches in the US, low margin shedding, and softer foodservice volumes in Canada. Management called out the headwinds as timing-related, citing strong end market demand for its recently added capacity that should result in higher FCF conversion, leverage reduction, and a multiple re-rate if the company can execute.
- [ATS Corp. drops nearly 30% on Q1 miss and challenging outlook](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/ats-corp-drops-nearly-30-on-q1-miss-and-challenging-outlook): ATS Corp. (ATS) sank 27% on its Q1 results, with revenue landing below guidance and management pointing to more weakness in Q2 driven by a continued wind-down in transportation, order slippage, and large project timing - all of which are weighing on the backlog. Alongside the print, management announced an 18-month cost-discipline initiative they expect will drive 250 bps of margin improvement once finished - though investors will likely wait for proof of execution before giving ATS shares a sustainable bid.
- [Gran Tierra runs 40% on $1.3B sale of assets in Colombia & Ecuador](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/gran-tierra-runs-40-on-1-3b-sale-of-assets-in-colombia-ecuador): Gran Tierra (GTE) ran nearly 40% after the $1.3B divestiture of its oil assets in Colombia and Ecuador, leaving its gas-heavy Canadian footprint and $315M of cash with the buyer assuming GTE’s long-dated notes and the company using proceeds to redeem its 2027 notes - generating $80M of annual interest savings and freeing up capacity for buybacks.
- [Shopify runs nearly 20% on strong Q2 and guidance](https://www.bullpen.finance/p/shopify-runs-nearly-20-on-strong-q2-and-guidance): Shopify (SHOP) is up nearly 20% since reporting a Q2 beat, which brought 34% growth on the top line that management expects can continue thanks to payments penetration, B2B GMV growth, and continued international momentum. That’s showing up in SHOP’s unit economics, with FCF margins expanding to >18% and tracking to ~20% in Q3 supporting its aggressive buyback program - with nearly $2B of its current $5B program chewed through in the first half of the year as management takes advantage of its current valuation.